Coffs Harbour Race 7 Preview: A Cup Hat-Trick On The Line
Coffs Harbour Race 7 preview, tips and rated prices: fast tempo sets up the closers, and Kingsley leans on a Golden Bullet over the odds.
A $150,000 mile at Coffs Harbour with a fast tempo and a live over-the-odds top pick. This is where the pace shape does the heavy lifting.
The race
Race 7 at Coffs Harbour jumps at 4:10pm AEST, a $150,000 contest over a field of 12 on a fine day with the rail in the true position. It shapes as a genuine test at 1600m, with several of the market's leading players wanting exactly this trip and a clear split between the on-pace runners and the closers who will need the race run to suit.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 75.69 per cent, which is a strong signal that the speed up front will be genuine and the back half of the field will be the ones charging home. The ppir figure tells you where each runner settles, with 1 the closest to the lead. Fortune (4) maps closest to the speed of the main players on a ppir of 2 despite the inside gate, while Kaizad sits on 3 and Danish Fortune on 4 to roll forward. From there the race is built for the swoopers: Perfect Justice sits back on a ppir of 8, Hollywood Hero on 9, and both Loch Eagle (13) and First Landing are right out the back. When the speed is this hot, the runners parked off it are the ones who benefit, and that is the story of this race.
Kingsley's selections
Kingsley's top pick is Time Quest (13), also the Golden Bullet official tip, and he is chasing a third straight Coffs Harbour Cup. This is a versatile gelding who can lead or settle, and this is his trip: two from two at the track and four wins at 1600m. He won his latest Hawkesbury trial and can be forgiven a wide run on a heavy track last time. Kingsley rates him $4.80 against a market of $7.50 this morning, so he sees clear value where the market has let him drift.
His second pick is Perfect Justice (12), rated the main threat. This one is best of the backmarkers on acceleration and the hot tempo sets it up to charge home late, having hit the line hard when a close second at Randwick before dropping back to a suitable mile. Kingsley rates it $2.90 against a $2.60 market this morning, so his number sits just over the quote.
His third pick is Loch Eagle (1), third-up and fitter, carrying the top weight of 60.5kg. He missed the start with no tempo to chase last time and kept coming, and Bullock is a plus. Kingsley rates him $15 against a $12 market this morning, calling him a place chance with the weight the one knock.
His fourth pick is Hollywood Hero (3), who tops the field on raw ratings and owns the best turn of foot here, though he wants a touch further than the mile. He hit the line wide and without cover last start, and if the speed collapses he can run home hard. Kingsley rates him $4.80 against a $3.70 market this morning.
One to note against: Kingsley flags Fortune as too short, rated $11 against a $5.50 market this morning, arguing that from the inside gate it maps to get well back and does itself no favours.
Golden Bullet, and I'm with him to make it a trifecta of Coffs Harbour Cups. Versatile gelding who could lead or settle back and this is his trip, 2 from 2 at the track and 4 wins at 1600m. Won his latest trial at Hawkesbury and looks primed to fire. Was caught wide on a Heavy track last start, forget it. Market's left him well over the odds at the quote. Official tip: Golden Bullet.
Second pick and the main threat to the top selection. Best of the backmarkers on acceleration, and the hot speed up front sets it up to charge home late. Hit the line hard when a close 2nd at Randwick last start, now drops back to a suitable 1600m. Grima a gun aboard. Rates right there.
Third pick. Missed the start and had no tempo to chase last time, kept coming to suggest better than the bare result. Class edge on these and Bullock a big plus in the saddle. Third-up and fitter. Big weight the only knock but rates a place chance.
Fourth pick. Tops the field on raw ratings with the best turn of foot in the race, but wants a touch further than the 1600m. Was wide with no cover last start and still hit the line. Collett a good booking for Baker. If the speed collapses it can run home hard.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Perfect Justice tops the field on it with a camRank of 1 at 92.70, from Hollywood Hero second. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Hollywood Hero leads on a cswRank of 1 at 98.49, with Fortune second and Time Quest third. Cruising speed measures how fast a runner travels through its race, and Danish Fortune tops that on a cruisingRank of 1 at 96.20. Acceleration measures the finishing burst, and it belongs to Hollywood Hero, whose accelerationRank of 1 at 104.48 heads Perfect Justice and Loch Eagle. The pattern is plain: the best raw numbers sit with the closers, and the fast tempo is exactly the setup they need.
What to watch: whether the genuine speed up front folds late and lets the swoopers land, with Time Quest primed at a price the market has left alone.
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