Moruya Race 6 Preview: The Arrow Maps To Lead A Crawl
Moruya Race 6 preview: a very slow tempo hands The Arrow the front, and Kingsley's rated prices split hard from the market on three chances.
The race
Moruya Race 6 jumps at 4:35pm AEST on Tuesday, a $30,000 event with twelve accepted under showers on a Good surface. The rail is out three metres from the 1000m to the 380m before cutting away, and the weights stretch from Sacred Mistress (1) at 61.5kg down to a trio on 55kg. It is a race defined less by any one horse than by the shape it projects, because the pace map here is close to empty.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Very Slow with a pressure figure of 8.71 per cent, which is about as close to a walk as a twelve-horse field gets. Only one runner maps to lead and that is The Arrow (3), with a ppir of 1 — the lower the figure, the closer a horse settles to the lead — from the inside gate. Sacred Mistress is next closest at 2, Peruno (6) at 3 and Flying Chevrolet (11) at 4. After that the field falls away fast: Hardazhell (8) at 8, Nagadec (10) at 9, Magic Mountain (9) at 10, Brazen Crime (2) at 11 and Go Gazza (14) last at 12.
That shape is the story. In a race with no genuine pressure, the horses drawn and ridden to sit last are being asked to run over a field that never got tired. Brazen Crime drew twelve of twelve and settles back; Go Gazza was beaten a long way last start and maps to the rear of a crawl. Those are the two the tempo hurts most.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is The Arrow (3), rated $4.40 against a $4.20 market this morning. The case is simple: he is the only natural leader engaged, he has barrier one, and on paper nobody is going to make him work for it. He rolled home strongly last start after doing the job three wide and posted a peak rating in the process, and he is trained on course with a solid record at Moruya.
His second pick Nagadec (10) is rated $8.00 against a $7.50 market. He backs up in seven days, which is no negative, after running on hard near the fence at Queanbeyan when the race was long gone up front. He steps up from 1460m, trains here, and the ratings support him on more than one axis.
His third pick Flying Chevrolet (11) is rated $13 against an $11 market. There was no tempo to chase at Rosehill last time and a horse coming from behind was never winning that; this is much easier company, and barrier three plus a rider upgrade helps.
His fourth pick Hardazhell (8) is rated $9.50 against an $8.50 market, and he is the one runner whose profile fights the map. Pierre Boudvillain stays aboard, which counts, but from a ppir of 8 in a race with no speed there may simply be nothing coming back to him.
There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips listed in this race.
The only genuine leader in the race and from barrier 1 with virtually no early speed on paper, gets handed a soft time of it out in front. Rolled home well last start after doing the work 3 wide and ran to a peak rating doing it. Trained right here with a solid record at the track. Top pick.
Backs up in 7 days, which doesn't bother me at all. Ran on strongly near the fence at Queanbeyan last week when it was all over up front. Up in trip from 1460m, trains here and rates right up there on both CSW and acceleration. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top pick.
No tempo at all to chase at Rosehill last time and it was never going to win from the back with that shape. Much easier company today, rates strongly on class and gets a rider upgrade from barrier 3. Third pick.
Best acceleration in the field by a street and Boudvillain keeps the ride, a genuine rider at this level. The worry is it gets a long way back and with virtually no speed on paper there'll be nothing to run over late. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Hardazhell owns it — camRank 1 at 83.84, clear of Nagadec at camRank 2 on 79.57 and Flying Chevrolet at camRank 3 on 79.18. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Peruno leads on cswRank 1 with 80.51, from Nagadec at cswRank 2 on 79.29 and The Arrow at cswRank 3 on 78.05.
Cruising speed measures how fast a horse can travel without exertion, and The Arrow is cruisingRank 1 on 84.8, ahead of Sacred Mistress on 81.3 and Flashy Icon (7) on 79.3 — a useful thing to own when you are alone in front. Acceleration is the sprint gear, and Hardazhell is accelerationRank 1 at 98.51, a long way clear of Nagadec at accelerationRank 2 on 84.55 and Magic Mountain at accelerationRank 3 on 83.65. The one-line summary: Nagadec is the only runner ranked inside the top two on both CSW and acceleration.
Where the market and the ratings part
Several prices are out of line. Peruno is rated $13 against a $9.50 market this morning despite a Moruya win last start, with 53 starts and a 350m drop in trip against him. Flashy Icon is rated $15 against a $10 market on two wins from 29 and nothing for over a year. Sacred Mistress is rated $9.50 against a $7.00 market while lumping 61.5kg, up 3.5kg. Magic Mountain is rated $21 against a $16 market, Go Gazza rated $21 against a $15 market, Karuta King (15) rated $34 against a $23 market, and Never Lose Faith (13) rated $101 against a $51 market.
What to watch: whether anyone crosses The Arrow early — if nobody does, the back half of this field is racing for second.
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