Balaklava Race 9 Preview: Pace, Tips And Rated Prices

Balaklava's $130,000 mile closes the card at 4:55pm AEST, and the pressure reading says it will be run at a tempo that punishes anything caught flat-footed on the speed.

The race

Sixteen go around on a Good surface with the rail in the True position and fine weather overhead. It is a deep, competitive field by any measure — the top of the ratings is tight, the weight range runs from 60kg down to 54kg, and the query marks are scattered across distance, fitness and barriers rather than concentrated on one or two runners. The headline number is the pressure reading of 98.7 per cent, which puts this in the Very Fast tempo band. That is close to the ceiling, and it shapes everything.

The pace picture

Only one runner in the field maps to lead, and it is Bootlegger (2), who carries a predicted in-run position of 1. Behind him the forward brigade is crowded: Tippa (7) is next closest on the ppir read, with Air Assault (1) third, Williamsburg (4) fourth and I Catchem Fox (8) fifth. Snoopy Now (9) sits just off that group in sixth.

That crush is exactly why Air Assault, for all his ratings, is hard to love today. He has 60kg, he has to race handy, and there is a wall of speed predicted in front of him over a mile. He is rated $8.00 against a $5.50 market this morning, and at that gap the market is doing the believing.

The flip side is that a genuinely fast tempo hands the race to the runners settling back with a finishing kick. Sir Kingsford (3) maps eighth, Cicala (11) eleventh — both are shapes that improve when the front end goes too hard.

Kingsley's four

His top pick is Bootlegger (2), and he is also the Golden Bullet. The case is straightforward: he won at Morphettville Parks last start doing it the hard way, parked wide, hitting the front near the 800m and refusing to stop. He drops 3kg for that, he is third-up, the mile is his trip, and he is the strongest cruiser in the field. Rated $4.20 against a $6.50 market this morning, that is the biggest price disagreement among the serious chances.

His second pick is Snoopy Now (9), and Kingsley rates him the main danger. Restrained out of a wide gate last time when the shape did not suit, he still worked into fourth, and barrier 4 today is a significant upgrade on 11. He won his trial convincingly. Rated $11.00 against a $9.00 market this morning.

His third pick is Sir Kingsford (3), who ran on at long odds first-up, gets 3.5kg off, has three wins from eight starts second-up, and profiles as a beneficiary of the tempo from back in the field. Rated $12.00 against a $10.00 market this morning.

His fourth pick is Cicala (11), who is drawn to get every possible favour from barrier 2 with Jamie Melham aboard. The reservation is 1600m for the first time, and the price: rated $3.80 against a $3.20 market this morning, which makes her short for what she has to prove.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of a horse's quality. Snoopy Now tops it at 96.88, with Air Assault second on 95.86 and Bootlegger third on 95.86 — a margin of four-thousandths between second and third.

CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating. Cicala leads it on 97.53, from Air Assault on 97.42 and Sir Kingsford on 96.29. Kingsley's own read is that the top of that list is too tight to lean on hard.

Cruising speed measures how fast a horse can travel without exerting itself. Bootlegger is the best in the race at 103.5, ahead of Kirkliston Blu on 102.7 and Air Assault on 100.7. Acceleration measures the turn of foot at the business end: Snoopy Now is best at 101.84, from Snow Patrol (10) on 99.03 and Sir Kingsford on 97.65.

The short version: the fastest cruiser leads, the fastest accelerator sits behind him, and Kingsley has them one-two.

What to watch: whether Bootlegger gets to cross cleanly from barrier 13 — if he leads without burning petrol, the 98.7 per cent pressure reading becomes his weapon rather than his problem.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.