Leeton Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace Map And Tips
Leeton Race 6 preview: a slow tempo, 15.73% pressure and Kingsley's rated prices, with Party Boss rated $2.00 against a $1.80 market.
A nine-horse sprint at Leeton with $27,000 up for grabs, a true rail and a tempo reading that tells you almost everything about how this one should unfold. Race 6 jumps at 5:05pm AEST and it is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The race
Conditions are fine, the surface is rated G and the rail sits in the true position. Cashbook (1) carries the top weight of 60.5kg, Party Boss (2) is next on 59.5kg, Melodee Rose (3) has 55.5kg, and the other six runners — Royal Rhino (4), Dita Von (6), Simone's Choice (7), Artist (8), Safe And Warm (9) and Encyclopedia (10) — are all in on the 55kg minimum. There are no official tips in this race, no Golden Bullet and no Good Roughie, so the rated card is doing the talking.
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The pace picture
The tempo band is Slow and the pressure reading is just 15.73 per cent, which means very little genuine contest for the lead and a race likely to be run at a tempo that lets the forward runners breathe. On the predicted running positions — ppir, where 1 is the runner settling closest to the lead — Cashbook maps to lead from barrier eight, with Simone's Choice next closest to the speed and Party Boss third. Dita Von is seventh on that scale but the notes have him settling handy enough to matter, and that is the whole appeal with him.
The flip side is Royal Rhino, who is ninth on the same scale. He will be getting well back in a race where nothing in front is under pressure, and he needs the leaders to stop. That is the single biggest question in the race: the horse with the best finishing burst has drawn the least helpful tempo.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Party Boss (2), rated $2.00 against a $1.80 market this morning. The case is simple. He is the best rated runner here with clear daylight back to the field on the time ratings, he hit the line strongly from a long way back last time, and today he settles considerably closer, which neutralises the slow tempo rather than falling victim to it. He has had a trial at Wagga since.
His second pick Royal Rhino (4) is rated $14.00 against a $10.00 market this morning. He won at Corowa eight days ago after doing the work wide, which reads as a peak effort, and he drops 4kg for it. The pace shape is the reservation, not the ability.
His third pick Cashbook (1) is rated $11.00 against an $8.50 market this morning. Third-up, rolling forward from the outside gate, with a tongue tie added and winkers removed as the stable searches for improvement. He had every chance outside the leader last start and weakened, and 60.5kg is no help.
His fourth pick Dita Von (6) is rated $23.00 against a $16.00 market this morning. He settles where you want to be in a slow race, though he is backing up in 10 days, drops back in trip, and one win from 26 starts tells you about the finish.
The firm negative is Melodee Rose (3), rated $4.00 while the market had him at $2.90 this morning — a clear disagreement. He resumes off 142 days, the trial was unremarkable, a maiden-grade Wangaratta win on a rain-affected track does not justify the quote, and he has work to do from midfield.
Best rated in the field with genuine daylight back to the rest on CSW, and the class edge is there too. Hit the line hard from well back last start and settles a lot closer today, that's the key. The slow tempo won't catch him out from that spot. Had a trial at Wagga since. Top pick and hard to beat.
Top acceleration in the field and won at Corowa 8 days back after doing the work wide, that was a peak effort. Gets in 4kg lighter for it. The catch is the slow tempo, because he'll be getting well back and needs them to stop in front. Second pick.
Third-up now and rolls forward from the outside gate. Tongue tie goes on, winkers come off, the stable's trying something. Had every chance sitting outside the leader last start and weakened out of it, and the top weight doesn't make life easier. Third pick.
Settles handy and that's the appeal. Backing up in 10 days and drops back in trip, but 1 win from 26 tells you plenty about the finish. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Party Boss ranks first on it at 77.4478, with Royal Rhino second at 74.7076 and Dita Von third. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and again Party Boss heads it on 82.81, with Melodee Rose second on 77.74 and Cashbook third on 75.84 — that is the gap the notes refer to.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without effort, and Simone's Choice tops the field on 75.0 with Cashbook next on 72.5, which is exactly why those two sit closest to the speed. Acceleration measures the finishing burst, and Royal Rhino ranks first on 87.953 from Party Boss on 85.6589. Party Boss being top on both ability ratings and second on acceleration is the screenshot claim here.
Where the value sits
Outside the main four, Artist is rated $126.00 against a $46.00 market this morning, Safe And Warm and Encyclopedia are both rated $301.00 against markets of $81.00 and $91.00, and Simone's Choice is rated $31.00 against an $18.00 market. The rated card is markedly more severe than the opening market on the tail of this field.
What to watch: whether Royal Rhino can close into a slow tempo, or whether Party Boss's closer settling spot simply settles it.
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