Hawkesbury Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Tips And Pace Map
Hawkesbury race 6 preview: rated prices, the pace map and Kingsley's top four for the 4:50pm, including a short-priced favourite he is happy to watch.
A short-priced favourite that tops the composite ratings, and a rated price that says the market has already taken the value out of it. That is the shape of Hawkesbury Race 6.
The race
Eight go around in the $42,000 event at Hawkesbury, jumping at 4:50pm AEST. Drizzle is about, the surface is rated Good and the rail is in the True position, so there is no bias to hunt for — this is a straightforward test decided on where horses settle and what they have left. The runner comments point to a 1400m trip, and several in this field have distance form that matters at the journey.
Brad Widdup's Ausbred Hed'n'tail carries 57kg with Tommy Berry aboard from barrier six, while the topweights General Soho and Prince Of Sorts both shoulder 60kg. Dylan Gibbons has the lightest load on Blow In at 55kg.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure figure of 51.06 per cent — a genuinely neutral race, neither a sprint from the gates nor a crawl that punishes the closers. Nobody is forced into a suicidal lead and nobody gets a free kick sitting last.
Belleistic Kids has the lowest predicted position in running of the field and maps to lead from the inside gate. Prince Of Sorts is the next closest and is a natural to roll forward from barrier five, with General Soho also predicted to sit handy despite the widest draw. Ausbred Hed'n'tail settles on the speed without needing to use petrol early, which is the shape you want at an average tempo.
The flip side matters just as much. Equilibrist, Blow In and Tavolo are all predicted to give this lot a start, with Tavolo the furthest back of the eight. In a race with no pressure to soften the leaders, that is a real ask — they need the front end to over-race or the sprint home to be sharp enough to cover the gap. Equilibrist won at Kembla last time but the wide gate compounds the problem.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Ausbred Hed'n'tail (5), rated $2.30 against a $2.05 market this morning. It is third-up, trained at Hawkesbury, and the blinkers come off for the first time. The figures put it on top and Berry is a plus. But the rated price is longer than the market price, and Kingsley is plain about it: on the numbers it is the best horse, at that quote there is no edge, so he is watching.
His second pick Tavolo (7) is rated $10 against a $9 market this morning. She worked home strongly at Bathurst from a long way back and draws far kinder today in barrier two, though the map still has her conceding start to the leaders.
His third pick Blow In (10) is rated $10 against a $9 market this morning. The 1400m is his trip with four wins from 26 starts at the distance and he was beaten a nose at Canberra last time, but he settles midfield or worse and it has been more than three years between wins.
His fourth pick Yes Siree (8) is rated $13 against a $10 market this morning, drops from 60kg to 56kg, is trained at the track and settles handy after battling on at Goulburn. Fourth pick is as far as Kingsley goes with it. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
Rates right up on the numbers and Tommy Berry is a genuine plus. 3rd run back, trained here at Hawkesbury, and the blinkers come off for the 1st time. Settles on the speed with the acceleration to match. Top pick on the figures, just no edge for mine at that quote, so I'm happy to watch this one.
No comment available for this runner.
Best acceleration in the field by a clear margin and worked home strongly at Bathurst after getting well back. Drawn far better today, though the map still has her giving them a start. Second pick, but this isn't a race I'm throwing money at.
Early money there and the trip is his go, 4 wins from 26 at 1400m. Beaten a nose at Canberra last time. But he settles midfield or worse and it's been over 3 years between drinks. 3rd pick, no more.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the all-in measure of a horse's quality. Ausbred Hed'n'tail ranks first there at 81.6518, with Tavolo a fraction behind on 81.6474 and Belleistic Kids third.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating. Belleistic Kids tops it at 87.84 — the best figure in the field — with Ausbred Hed'n'tail second and Prince Of Sorts third. That Belleistic Kids number is the argument for the leader; 384 days without a win at seven is the argument against.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race. Prince Of Sorts ranks first on 80.2, ahead of Ausbred Hed'n'tail. Acceleration measures the finishing burst, and Tavolo owns it at 92.5948, first by a clear margin from Ausbred Hed'n'tail and Equilibrist.
The market read
The honest summary: the horse that rates best is the horse the market has already found. Every one of Kingsley's four is rated longer than its release price, which is the definition of a race to respect rather than invest in. General Soho, an 11-year-old with 76 starts, up 6kg and drawn widest, is rated $51 against a $23 market this morning — the biggest disagreement on the card.
What to watch: whether Tavolo's closing burst can bridge the gap to a leader who gets an uncontested, average tempo out in front.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
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