Caulfield Race 8 Preview: Beiwacht Rated To Dictate
Caulfield Race 8 preview: pace map, rated prices and Kingsley's top four, with Beiwacht mapping to lead a fast-run 1200m sprint.
Thirteen sprinters, two million dollars in prize money and a tempo reading that points to a genuinely fast-run race. Caulfield Race 8 jumps at 4:45pm AEST and it is free to view fully rated on theking.zone today.
The race
Partly cloudy, a Good surface and the rail out 13m for the entire circuit. Thirteen go around over 1200m, with the top weights carrying 58.5kg and the mares' quartet of Charm Stone (10), My Gladiola (11), Geegees Mistruth (12) and Extragalactic (13) on 56.5kg. The shape of it is what matters most here: this is a race where where you sit at the 600m looks like deciding who is still travelling at the 200m.
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The pace picture
The tempo band is Fast and the pressure reading is 67.59 per cent — a high-pressure sprint, not a sit-and-sprint affair. Beiwacht (5) is the only runner with a ppir of 1, meaning he maps to lead, and from gate 3 he has every chance to do it cleanly. Behind him Gallant Son (6) at ppir 2 and Charm Stone (10) at ppir 3 are the next most forward, with Oliveanotherday (9) at ppir 4 completing the front bracket.
The flipside is a long queue of horses mapping to give them a start. Geegees Mistruth (12) is the deepest at ppir 13, with Extragalactic at 12, Beadman (7) at 11, My Gladiola at 10 and Jimmysstar (3) at 9. In a race with this much pressure engaged, that back half is not a death sentence — but it does mean the closers need the leaders to feel it, and need racing room when they arrive.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Beiwacht (5), who bolted to the front at this track last start and put three lengths on them going away. He is the highest-rated cruiser in the field and drawn to dictate again. Kingsley has him rated $2.50 against a $3.10 market this morning — he is shorter in the book than the quote — and he carries the Golden Bullet, the site's strongest official tip, in this race.
His second pick Extragalactic (13) is framed as the main danger. The bare form undersells her: she missed the start and was held up when the run came last time, and she is fitter for that first-up outing. James McDonald takes the ride, and with this much speed engaged in front of her over 1200m, she shapes as the one charging late. Rated $7.50 against a $7.00 market this morning, so on Kingsley's numbers she is a shade over the odds.
His third pick My Gladiola (11) won at Sandown last start and posted a peak rating doing it, but steps up to 1200m and into a far harder heat. The rated price says so plainly: rated $20 against a $14 market this morning, a clear disagreement with the market. His fourth pick Jimmysstar (3) gets blinkers for the first time and is five wins from eight at Caulfield. He missed the start, was caught wide and got crowded inside the 150m last time — much better than the line reads — and he has since won a Cranbourne trial. Rated $7.50 against a $6.00 market this morning.
Bolted straight to the front at this track last start and won by 3 going away. Rank 1 on cruising, drawn to bounce out and dictate again from gate 3. The class edge is clear and he's rated shorter than the quote in my book. A Golden Bullet and one of my main plays for the day.
Missed the start and was held up last time, the bare form sells her short. One of the best turns of foot in the race and she's fitter for the 1st-up run. Gets back and needs luck, but McDonald takes the ride and with plenty of speed engaged up front over 1200m she'll be charging late. Second pick and the biggest threat.
Saluted at Sandown last start and posted a peak rating doing it. Up to 1200m and settles midfield, but the lift in class on these is a big ask. 3rd pick.
Blinkers go on for the 1st time and he's 5 from 8 at this track. Missed the start, was caught wide and got crowded inside the 150m last start, much better than that reads. Won his trial at Cranbourne since. Only knock is he maps to get a long way back. 4th pick.
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Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Beadman (7) tops it on 104.539 from Oliveanotherday on 101.717 and Beiwacht on 100.188. CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Napoleonic (8) leads on 104.80 from Pericles (2) on 104.74, with Beiwacht third on 104.24.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can hold without exertion, and it is Beiwacht's strongest suit — ranked 1 on 107.1, ahead of Oliveanotherday on 105.6 and Gallant Son on 103.6. Acceleration measures the turn of foot at the business end: Beadman ranks 1 on 106.754, Extragalactic 2 on 104.644 and Giga Kick (1) 3 on 103.721.
That is the tension of the race in two lines — the best cruiser is in front, the two best accelerators are behind him.
Elsewhere, Giga Kick has won both his starts here but maps back at ppir 7 and has not saluted in nearly a year; Napoleonic tops CSW but was second in a far weaker race; Beadman has the ratings but sits outside Kingsley's four.
What to watch: whether Beiwacht crosses cleanly from gate 3 and controls the tempo, because if he does not, the fast band favours Extragalactic's finish.
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