Wagga Race 7 Preview: Kingsley's Tips And Rated Prices
Wagga Race 7 preview: slow tempo, 29.42% pressure and Kingsley's top four with rated prices, headed by an Official Tip well over the market.
A slow-tempo eight-horse sprint at Wagga where the speed map does most of the talking, and Kingsley's top pick is rated well over the market price from this morning.
The race
Wagga Race 7 jumps at 4:55pm AEST on Monday 28 September for $30,000, an eight-runner field under fine skies with the rail out seven metres from the 1400m to the winning post and true the rest of the way. Weights run from Rocket Rudee (2) at the top with 59kg down to 55kg for Teresprit (10) and Rangatira (12), and the draw has been kind to the fancied end: Diamond Frost (7) has barrier one, Bonnie Murringo (5) barrier two, while Rocket Rudee is stuck with the outside gate in eight.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Slow with a pressure figure of 29.42 per cent, which is the engine of this entire race. There is very little genuine early speed engaged on paper, and that changes what a length means at the 400m.
Bonnie Murringo has a predicted in-running position of 1 and maps to lead, with Dee Dee Express (8) next closest on a ppir of 2 despite barrier seven, so the front end is likely to be a two-horse conversation rather than a scramble. Rangatira sits third on the settling numbers and Serenading (9) fourth. Behind them, the picture gets uncomfortable: Hip Hip Ole (3) is fifth, Diamond Frost sixth, Rocket Rudee seventh and Teresprit last of the eight on ppir. In a race run at this pressure reading, the closers are being asked to make ground at the business end without a hot tempo to run at, and Teresprit's own notes admit as much — he gets right back and there simply is not much speed in front of him to chase down.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Dee Dee Express (8), rated $6.50 against an $8.50 market this morning, and he is also an Official Tip in the Back category. The case is straightforward: he was slow away and caught four wide without cover last start, so the margin is misleading, and with almost no early speed engaged he is positioned to dictate his own terms from a ppir of 2.
His second pick Bonnie Murringo (5) is rated $2.10 against a $1.85 market this morning — a runner he likes without wanting to take that quote. She ran second in the Wagga trial leading in, has placed twice from three fresh runs, loses the blinkers, drops 3.5kg and settles right on the speed.
His third pick Hip Hip Ole (3) is rated $5.50 against a $3.80 market this morning, another clear disagreement. She resumes after 135 days without a recent trial and 1200m is short of her preferred trip, but she holds the class edge and has won two of her three starts at this track.
His fourth pick Teresprit (10) is rated $16 against an $11 market this morning. Forgive the Randwick run where he was restrained to last with no hope and still finished closest on the line; the reservation is purely the shape of this race.
Of the others, Diamond Frost is rated $16 against a $10 market this morning and gets a long way back, while Rangatira is rated $801 against a $126 market this morning with no win in 869 days.
Slow out and stuck 4 wide with no cover last start, beaten a long way but throw a line through it. Rates on top for cruising and maps to bowl along in front, and with virtually no early speed on paper he'll dictate his own terms. Well over the odds too. Looks a solid play and an Official Tip.
Ran 2nd in the Wagga trial leading in and she's placed twice from 3 fresh runs, so the fitness is there. Blinkers come off, gets 3.5kg off the back and settles right on the speed. Second pick, just short enough at the quote for mine.
Resuming off 135 days without a recent trial and 1200m is short of what she really wants. Has the class edge on these though, rates second-best on acceleration and she's won 2 of her 3 here. Third pick.
Best acceleration in the field by a clear margin and forgive last start, restrained to last at Randwick with no hope and still closest on the line. Trouble is he gets right back and there's little tempo on paper to run at. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Teresprit ranks first on it at 77.3767 with Hip Hip Ole second on 77.3552 — the two highest-rated horses in the field on raw ability are the pair drawn to be doing their work late.
CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, flips the order: Bonnie Murringo tops it on 81.19 from Hip Hip Ole on 80.89 and Dee Dee Express third on 77.81.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain mid-race, and Dee Dee Express ranks first on 78.9 ahead of Hip Hip Ole on 75.9 and Bonnie Murringo on 73.9. Acceleration — the sprint a horse can produce off that cruise — belongs to Teresprit, ranked first on 89.3502, a clear margin over second-ranked Hip Hip Ole on 79.0183 and Diamond Frost third.
The one-line summary: the fastest cruiser leads the speed map, and the fastest accelerator is drawn to settle last in a race with a 29.42 per cent pressure reading.
What to watch: whether Dee Dee Express can cross from barrier seven and share the front with Bonnie Murringo, because if he does, Teresprit's finishing burst has nothing to aim at.
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