Hawkesbury Race 7 Preview: Never Know Tops A Slow Tempo Test
Hawkesbury race 7 preview, tips and rated prices: a slow tempo suits on-pace runners, with Never Know Kingsley's top pick over two live debutants.
A slow-tempo maiden-grade affair at Hawkesbury where the shape favours horses drawn to sit close, and two well-backed first-starters loom as the danger to the form runner.
The race
Hawkesbury Race 7 is a $60,000 event over the Hawkesbury circuit, jumping at 4:40pm AEST on fine going with the surface rated Good. The rail is out four metres from the 1100m to the 450m and true the rest of the way. Ten go around, and the field splits neatly between exposed form horses and a couple of untried types the market has already backed into the market. Chris Waller saddles two, and the Freedmans and John O'Shea each hold a first-starter with money.
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How it maps
The tempo band reads Slow with a pressure reading of just 10.23 percent, so this is not a race that will be run at a searching gallop. That matters. When the speed is soft, the horses parked back need luck and a strong finish, and the ones sitting close hold the whip hand.
His fourth pick Loreal Belle (3) is the one to note here: with a ppir of 1 she maps to lead, and a slow tempo is exactly the scenario that suits a horse able to roll along in front unpressured. His top pick Never Know (6) settles on the speed with a ppir of 3, right in the box seat. By contrast, top-rated CSW runner Kawerau (1) maps to get back on a ppir of 2 relative to the leaders' pattern, and swoopers such as Parisest Magic (7) on a ppir of 9, Residential (9) on 10 and Castelique (8) on 7 face a shape that does them no favours.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Never Know (6), rated $6 against a $5.50 market this morning. He ranks first on CAM, the composite ability rating, and second on acceleration. He settles on the speed, ran well last start when caught wide throughout, gets blinkers, is fit third-up and has trained at the track.
His second pick Seminal (10) is a first-starter for O'Shea and Charlton, rated $2.90 against a $2.70 market this morning. He trialled nicely at Rosehill, draws Zac Lloyd, and the only knock is that he is untried. Kingsley calls him a genuine threat.
His third pick Call Me Coach (5) is another debutant, this one for the Freedmans, rated $3.20 against a $2.70 market this morning. He trialled okay leading in and adds a tongue tie for his first run, and the support says he is ready.
His fourth pick is Loreal Belle (3), rated $21 against a $14 market this morning. She maps to lead, is second-up and lightly raced, and owns the best cruising speed in the field.
Rank 1 on CAM and second-best acceleration in the field, and it settles on the speed which is exactly where you want to be with a slow tempo predicted. Ran a cracker last start when caught wide throughout, blinkers go on now, trained at the track and fit third-up. Top pick.
First Starter but trialled nicely at Rosehill and gets Zac Lloyd, one of the best going around. O'Shea has him primed and the market's on from the off. Untried is the only knock. Second pick and a genuine threat.
No comment available for this runner.
First Starter for the Freedmans and the market's all over it. Trialled okay leading in, tongue tie goes on for debut. Untried but the money says he's ready. Third pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
Never Know tops CAM, the composite ability measure, and also ranks first on acceleration, the turn-of-foot rating. Tahurangi (12) is second on CAM and second on acceleration, while Kawerau ranks third for acceleration.
On CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, Kawerau leads the field, ahead of Never Know in second and Loreal Belle third. Kawerau best rated on CSW comes with a caveat, though: he maps too far back and is shorter than his figures justify.
Cruising speed, the sustainable-tempo rating, is headed by Loreal Belle, with Spud Gun (11) second and Never Know third. Note that both debutants, Seminal and Call Me Coach, carry no rated figures, so the numbers speak only for the exposed form.
Watch the market
Castelique has been crunched into single figures at an $8.50 market this morning off one run and a battling trial, yet he rates near the bottom of the field and maps to get right back, so Kingsley is happy to take him on. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips flagged in this race.
What to watch: whether Loreal Belle can dictate a soft lead, because if she does the swoopers are in trouble and Never Know sits perfectly placed to pounce.
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