Geelong Race 6 Preview: Karren Tops A Fast-Run Battle

A fast-run $35,000 sprint over a fine Geelong track, and the shape of the race matters as much as the form. Here is how Race 6 sets up.

The race and its conditions

Nine go around on a surface rated Good, with the rail out to its True Entire Circuit position. Weather is fine, the jump is set for 3:30pm AEST. The field is headed on the weights by Just For Show (1) at 61.5kg, and topped in the market by the debut winner Karren (10) at the foot of the handicap on 57kg.

Pace and pressure

The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 79.25 per cent, a genuinely strong reading that should stretch the field and reward those who settle within striking range. Ppir tells you where each runner is likely to settle, where 1 is closest to the lead: Mr Assertive (4) is the only runner mapping to lead on a ppir of 1, with Tango Jewel (2) next on 2 and Just For Show handy on 3. Karren settles handy enough on a ppir of 4.

At the other end, the burst horses sit back. It's A Yes (9) has a ppir of 8 and Bine (5) a ppir of 7, both drawn wide and both giving up ground early. In a race with this much pressure up front, that late fuel is exactly the profile that can be running over the top of a tiring leader.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Karren (10), the best-rated runner in the field who won well on debut and hit the line strongly, trialled nicely leading in, and takes only her second start with upside. The one caveat is the price: Kingsley makes her rated $1.70 against a $1.55 market this morning, so he sees no value at that quote even while landing on her at the top.

His second pick It's A Yes (9) is the late threat, holding the best acceleration in the field and hitting the line hard. Mott takes over, she is fitter second-up and trains here at Geelong; the map has her back but with the burst to be charging. Kingsley rates her $7.50 against a $7.00 market.

His third pick Mr Assertive (4) maps to lead, gets Rawiller as a genuine upgrade, is fitter second-up and holds a class edge, rated $13 into a $12 market. His fourth pick Bine (5) loves this trip and hits the line but maps to get too far back from the wide gate; rated $18 against a $16 market.

Worth flagging where Kingsley disagrees with the market. He has Moonraker (3) rated $18 against a much shorter $8.50 market this morning and is happy to take it on. Tango Jewel drew better in 3 and had early money, rated $51 against a $21 market, and last start on a Heavy 10 at Warrnambool can be excused. Faraway Dream (7) gets the tongue tie and had a genuine excuse when vetted lame, rated $26 against a $14 market, but he wants to see more first.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating: Karren tops it on a camRank of 1, ahead of It's A Yes on 2. CSW, the class-speed-weight time figure, also has Karren best on a cswRank of 1, with Just For Show second and Mr Assertive third. Cruising speed, the sustainable galloping rate, favours Mr Assertive on a cruisingRank of 1, with Tango Jewel next on 2. Acceleration, the ability to quicken, is where It's A Yes leads the field on an accelerationRank of 1, ahead of Edges Diamond (6) on 2 and Bine on 3.

So the picture is coherent: Karren rates best on ability and class-time, Mr Assertive controls the tempo up front, and It's A Yes owns the closing burst behind a fast, pressured lead.

What to watch: whether Karren settles close enough to hold off the late charge of It's A Yes once the fast pace bites.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.