Bathurst Race 6 Preview: Tips, Rated Prices And The Pace Trap
Bathurst Race 6 preview: a 96% pressure reading sets up the swoopers. Kingsley's top four, rated prices and where the market has it wrong.
Bathurst Race 6 is a $110,000 assignment over 1300m at 4:45pm AEST, twelve runners, overcast skies, a Good surface and the rail in the True position. It is the fastest-looking race on the card, and that single fact shapes everything else.
The race and the shape of it
A dozen accept, the weights stretch from 63kg down to 54.5kg, and the speed map reads like a pace collapse waiting to happen. The tempo band is graded Very Fast with a pressure reading of 96.07 per cent — near the ceiling of what the model measures. In a race like that, the horses drawn to sit closest to the lead are the ones carrying the risk, and the ones getting well back are the ones being handed a target.
ppir is the predicted in-run position: the lower the figure, the closer a runner settles to the lead. Ishikari (13) is the only runner in the field with a ppir of 1, so he maps to lead. Jenni The Jet (14) at 2 and Elson Boy (1) at 3 sit in the first wave behind him. At the other end, Atmospheric Rock (10) on 16, Super Helpful (2) on 14 and Tom Vegas (16) on 13 will be watching the carnage from a distance, which is exactly where you want to be when the front end is going at 96 per cent pressure.
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Pace: the leaders are earning it the hard way
The awkward part of this race is that the two runners with the best cruising speed profiles are also the two most exposed to the tempo. Cruising speed rates a horse's sustainable travelling speed; Ishikari leads the field on that metric at 97.9, with Elson Boy second on 97.1 and Jenni The Jet third on 95.1. On paper that is a strong on-pace trio. In practice, a Very Fast band at this pressure level means the back half of the race is where it gets decided.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Ishikari (13), fitter for two runs back, trained at the track, and rating on top. The only asterisk is the obvious one: he is the runner who has to absorb the speed. He is rated $4.60 against a $3.30 market this morning, so there is nothing in the quote to reward the risk.
His second pick Crusader Kings (6) is the cleanest fit for the shape. He won well last start, backs up quickly, and settles midfield on a ppir of 8 with a genuine turn of foot to use when the leaders wilt. Rated $5.50 and a $5.50 market this morning — no argument either way, and no edge.
His third pick Atmospheric Rock (10) is where the pace story and the numbers meet. He has the best acceleration figure in the field on 106.514, and he is the one runner set up to sweep late off a ppir of 16. He is rated $16 against an $18 market this morning.
His fourth pick Jenni The Jet (14) saluted at Canterbury last start, collaring the leader and continuing to find, and she settles handy off the speed with the weight in her favour at 54.5kg. Rated $8.50 against a $9.00 market. There are no official Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race.
The loudest market disagreement belongs to Tom Vegas (16). He is rated $7 against a $3.60 market this morning — well in at the weights from gate one, but only modest acceleration at 76.0618, and four runners ahead of him on Kingsley's list.
Maps to lead and rates on top, fitter for two runs back and trained at the track. Only wary of the hot speed to deal with as an on-pacer at 1300m, and there's nothing in the price. Top pick but happy to sit this one out.
Racing in good form, won well last start and backs up quick. Sits midfield with a turn of foot and the hot speed up front suits. Second pick, but there's no value in the quote for mine.
Best acceleration in the field by a street and the hot speed up front sets this one up to swoop late. Gets a fair way back but has the finishing burst to make ground. Third pick.
Saluted last start at Canterbury, collared the leader and kept finding. Maps to settle handy off the speed with the weight in her favour. Hot tempo up front the only worry for an on-pace type. Fourth pick.
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Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating: Cando Attitude (11) ranks first on 94.96, with Atmospheric Rock second on 94.9336 and Crusader Kings third. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is headed by Super Helpful (2) on 89.89 from Elson Boy on 89.88 and Ishikari third. Acceleration measures late finishing burst — Atmospheric Rock's 106.514 is comfortably the field's best, ahead of Cando Attitude on 95.8793 and Super Helpful on 93.1356.
The standout claim: the horse with the best acceleration in the race is also the horse settling furthest from a 96 per cent pressure tempo.
What to watch: whether Ishikari can lead without being harassed — if he is not left alone, the closers own the last 200m.
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