Tamworth Race 6 Preview: Rated Prices, Pace Map And Tips
Tamworth Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices against the morning market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
Eleven runners, $30,000 on offer and a 4:40pm AEST jump at Tamworth on Monday. Fine weather, a Good surface and the rail out three metres from the 1000m to the 350m before reverting to true — this one is rated fully free on theking.zone today.
The race
It is a competitive middle-grade affair where the weights do real work. Nomorenightshift (1) carries 62.5kg from the outside gate, He's My Warrior (2) has 61kg, and at the other end of the scale Yacht Girl (9), Supreme Statement (10) and Rivaldo (11) all get in with 55kg. That 7.5kg spread between top and bottom is the structural story of the race, and it matters more than usual because the top weights are not the ones who map to be closest to the speed.
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The pace picture
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure rating of 41.5 per cent — no scorching early fractions, no crawl, a tempo that rewards the horses who can hold a position without being hustled. Sipping Shamus (5) is the only runner with a predicted in-run position of 1, so he is the one who maps to lead, and from barrier two he will not need to do anything unusual to get there. Oenology (4) is next-closest on the pace figures, with Need A Miracle (6) from gate three and Yacht Girl (9) both mapping to settle in the first half of the field.
That shape is unhelpful for the runners at the other end. Talkachino (3) projects to be a long way back again after plodding home at Muswellbrook, Rivaldo (11) is deep in the back half, and Royal Optimism (7) has the highest predicted settling position of the entire field. On an average tempo with only moderate pressure, the ones coming from the rear are asking the leaders to stop, and there is no obvious reason in this map that they will.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Sipping Shamus (5), the horse who controls the race from the inside draw. Kingsley rates him $6.50 against a $3.80 market this morning, so the market is considerably shorter than his own assessment — the reservation is that his class-speed-weight time figure sits below the main players and he was one-paced at the business end last start.
His second pick is He's My Warrior (2), beaten by the barest margin last time and a thoroughly honest type who trains at the track and has won one of six starts here. He is up 200m in trip and the ratings suggest he is sharper a touch shorter, but his late speed measures with the best in this. Kingsley rates him $7.50 against a $6.50 market this morning.
His third pick is Need A Miracle (6), who was three wide with no cover last start and found nothing — a run worth forgiving. He is drawn far better in three, rates near the top on the time figures and picks up a strong booking in Braith Nock. Rated $7.50, matching a $7.50 market this morning.
His fourth pick is Royal Optimism (7), the fastest finisher in the field by a clear margin, but one who needs the race to fall apart in front of him. Rated $13.00 against a $12.00 market this morning.
One to respect outside the four: Yacht Girl (9) missed the start at Scone and still hit the line hard, is fitter for that first-up effort, maps close to the speed here and has 55kg. She is rated $6.00 against a $5.50 market this morning.
Rolls forward from the inside but the CSW rating sits below the main players and he was one-paced when it mattered last start. Market rates him more than I do. Happy to take on.
Went down by a whisker last start and he's an honest type. Trains here and has a solid record at the track with 1 win from 6. Up 200m in trip and the ratings say he's sharper a bit shorter, but the late speed rates with the best of them. Second pick and the main threat to the top selection.
Three wide with no cover last start and found little, I'll forgive that. Drawn much better in 3, rates near the top on CSW and Nock's a strong booking. Third pick.
Best acceleration in the field by a street, genuine daylight back to the rest of them. Trouble is he maps to get a long way back and needs the race to fall his way. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability figure, the single number for overall quality: Sipping Shamus tops it at 81.53, with Royal Optimism a whisker behind on 81.50 and Yacht Girl third on 79.57. CSW rates class, speed and weight against the clock, and there the order flips — Nomorenightshift ranks first at 81.18 and Need A Miracle second at 80.87, while Sipping Shamus is only seventh on that measure.
Cruising speed, the tempo a horse can sustain without effort, is headed by Sipping Shamus at 81.2 from Yacht Girl at 77.7, which underlines why those two should be in the first few strides. Acceleration measures the late burst, and Royal Optimism's 97.30 is genuine daylight clear of the field, with Rivaldo second at 84.30.
The screenshot line: the horse rated best on raw ability and cruising speed is also the one who maps to lead, and the market has him at less than two-thirds of the rated price.
Market and margins
The widest disagreements are at the top and the bottom. Sipping Shamus is rated $6.50 against a $3.80 market this morning; Talkachino is rated $15.00 against an $11.00 market; Nomorenightshift, lumping 62.5kg from the outside alley with none from six at the trip, is rated $11.00 against an $8.50 market. Supreme Statement is rated $20.00 against an $18.00 market and Rivaldo, an eight-year-old with 52 starts taking a sharp lift in grade, is rated $31.00 against a $26.00 market.
What to watch: whether Sipping Shamus gets across cleanly from gate two and dictates the tempo, because if he does, Royal Optimism's finishing speed may arrive too late to matter.
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This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.