Tamworth Race 6 Preview: Pace, Rated Prices And Tips
Tamworth Race 6 preview: Kingsley's top four, rated prices versus the release market, the pace map and the CAM, CSW and acceleration standouts.
Eleven go around in Tamworth Race 6 at 4:40pm AEST for $30,000, and the shape of it comes down to one question: does the horse who maps to lead get an easy time of it, or does the fastest finisher in the field get the run of the race behind them.
The race
Conditions are straightforward — fine weather, a Good surface, and the rail out three metres from the 1000m to the 350m before reverting to true. Weights stretch from Nomorenightshift (1) at 62.5kg down to three runners on the 55kg minimum in Yacht Girl (9), Supreme Statement (10) and Rivaldo (11). There are no Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips attached to this race, so the analysis stands on the ratings and the map.
No value right now — no runner's Bullet Price is shorter than its live price.
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The pace picture
This rates an Average tempo with a pressure reading of 41.5 per cent — not a sit-and-sprint, not a meltdown, but a race in which one runner can control the terms. Sipping Shamus (5) carries a ppir of 1, meaning he maps to lead, and he does it from barrier two rather than having to burn petrol to get there. Oenology (4) is the next-closest on ppir, then Need A Miracle (6) from the handy alley in three, with Yacht Girl settling fourth-closest off barrier eight despite having been back last at Scone.
The flip side is the back half of the map. Royal Optimism (7) has the highest ppir in the field at 11, so he is giving the leaders a long start; Rivaldo sits at 10 and Talkachino (3) at 9. In a race with only moderate pressure up front, that is a difficult assignment, and it is the single biggest caveat on the strongest closer here.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Sipping Shamus (5), rated $4 against a $3.80 market this morning — so the market has him a shade shorter than the rating. The case is built on tempo control from the inside and the fact he tops both the CAM and cruising speed lists. The reservation is real, though: his CSW ranks only seventh, and he was one-paced at the business end last start.
His second pick He's My Warrior (2) is rated $7 against a $6.50 market. He was beaten a whisker last time, trains at the track and has won one of six here. The ratings suggest he is sharper a touch shorter than today's trip, which is up 200m, but his late speed holds up against this grade. His third pick Need A Miracle (6) is rated $9 against a $7.50 market — forgiven a run three wide without cover, drawn much better in three this time, and with Braith Nock aboard.
His fourth pick Royal Optimism (7) is rated $16 against a $12.00 market, the one runner who can win this on merit from off the speed if it falls apart in front. Of the unselected, Yacht Girl is rated $7 against a $5.50 market and is the one that sits closest to the selections on raw numbers: she missed the start last time and still finished off strongly, she is fitter for it, and she maps to be on the pace with 55kg.
Rolls forward from the inside but the CSW rating sits below the main players and he was one-paced when it mattered last start. Market rates him more than I do. Happy to take on.
Went down by a whisker last start and he's an honest type. Trains here and has a solid record at the track with 1 win from 6. Up 200m in trip and the ratings say he's sharper a bit shorter, but the late speed rates with the best of them. Second pick and the main threat to the top selection.
Three wide with no cover last start and found little, I'll forgive that. Drawn much better in 3, rates near the top on CSW and Nock's a strong booking. Third pick.
Wide and plodding again last start, 0 from 6 at the trip and 0 from 6 here. Prefer others.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $25The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, the one-number summary of a horse's overall quality. Sipping Shamus tops it at 81.5259, with Royal Optimism next at 81.4985 and Yacht Girl third on 79.5695.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, which measures what a horse has actually clocked adjusted for the company and the burden. Here the order turns over completely: Nomorenightshift ranks first on 81.18 despite the 62.5kg and the outside gate, ahead of Need A Miracle on 80.87 and Talkachino on 80.56.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a horse can sustain without stress, and Sipping Shamus leads it on 81.2 from Yacht Girl on 77.7 and To Be Frank (8) on 75.7. Acceleration measures the sharpness of the turn of foot, and Royal Optimism owns it at 97.2971 — a genuine gap back to Rivaldo in second on 84.2991.
Watch the first 400m: if Sipping Shamus gets to the front cheaply, this becomes a race about who is closest to him, not who finishes fastest.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.