10 Betting Systems That Actually Work

Overview

In the final episode of series one of The Grind, Kingsley wraps up six months of data from 12 June to 16 November. He reviews the different price points available to punters, updates the November and full-period results, and walks through ten factors that returned a profit of 10% or more over the period.

November and Six-Month Results

Kingsley reports that November was the best month to date, with 284 bets, 82 winners and an ROI of 17.6% at high price. Across the full six-month period, the combined tips (golden bullets, backs and Good Roughies) produced 2,365 bets, 541 winners and an ROI of 7.15% at high price. He notes the golden bullets returned 2.5% at high price, which he found disappointing, while backs returned 8.5%. Kingsley says he had expected the overall figure to be closer to 10%, attributing the shortfall partly to a poor run through July and August.

Understanding the Price Points

Kingsley explains the different pricing methods measured in the data. At high price — described as the average of the top handful of bookies from around 9:30am — betting off his staking plan sits at about minus 5%, meaning even top prices on random selections would lose. Final live price sits at around minus 15%, which he advises against taking. He recommends best tote with SP, which comes in around minus 7%, as a better option for late betting. Betfair SP shows an ROI near zero before commission, which he describes as the most efficient price in the market. The TKZ opening price sits around minus 18%, a more inefficient market where more holes can be found, but one that is harder to get large bets on early.

The Ten Factors

Kingsley details ten factors, each returning 10% or more over the period, all run at high price:

- Official tips with a cruising rank of 1–2: 13% (rising to 31% on slow-tempo sprint races of 800–1200m) - Official tips priced $3.50–$15: 8.8% (previously just over 10%) - Official tips, first-up runners: 15% - Class edge with race strength over 95 (listed and group races): 12% - Number one selection with horses trained at the track: 15% - Number one selection with an excuse last start: 52% (65 bets) - Number one selection backing up close to last run: 13% - Cam rank one with a horse backing up (1–7 days): 9.45% - Number one selection with good value in early betting: 10% - Good value in early betting with ideal distance: 11%

Kingsley notes the number one selection alone returned 5.8% across 7,150 bets, while second, third and fourth selections showed no value.

What's Next

Kingsley is taking a break until autumn before returning for series two. In the meantime he plans previews for the Japan Cup on 30 November and the Hong Kong international races around 14 December. He also aims to add Hong Kong racing to the TKZ site on Sundays and Wednesdays, included in relevant packages and day passes, and is continuing work on new algorithms and the data screen.

Kingsley signs off by encouraging viewers to ask questions through support at The King Zone and to stay in the game.