My $1,000,000 Melbourne Cup Bet

Standfirst

With seven days until the 2025 Melbourne Cup, Kingsley and Adam work through the leading contenders, weighing form, weights and overseas ratings to build their short lists ahead of the barrier draw.

Al Riffa at the top of the weights

Al Riffa leads the weights at 59 kilos and is priced around $6. Kingsley rates him the best horse in the race, roughly six lengths clear on his figures, pointing to his Irish St Leger win under 61.5 kilos where he broke away in the final 100 metres, and his Curragh Cup win under 62 kilos, breaking three minutes. Joseph O'Brien, a two-time Melbourne Cup winner, noted the horse's stamina on his dam's side and his improvement stepping up in trip, now two from two at longer distances. Adam's chief concern is the weight, with Al Riffa giving horses such as Valiant King and River of Stars around seven to eight kilos. Kingsley notes Al Riffa's peak UK rating of 121, the highest in the field.

The Caulfield Cup form lines

Several contenders come out of the Caulfield Cup, and both agreed opinions on that race shape the whole assessment. Half Yours ($7) won it with a well-timed run but has never raced past 2400 metres, and both view the Melbourne Cup as an afterthought for the horse. Valiant King ($7) drew praise from Adam for his run there and his earlier Bart Cummings win, though Kingsley notes he has only won two races and questions whether the price is short. Prasa Nocturne ($8, carrying 55.5 kilos) impressed both; his higher weight in that race lifts his comparable rating to 116, and both have him on their short lists. River of Stars ($16, 51.5 kilos) produced what Adam called one of the best runs in the race and is an on-pace runner carrying little weight.

Horses they are against

Maidan ($11) drew criticism, having raced past 2400 metres only once and finished mid-field there; both said they could not back it. Royal Supremacy, One Smooth Operator, Torren Zeno, Chevalier Rose, Middle Earth, More Felons and Vorban were all set aside, mostly on class or recent form. Buckaroo, carrying 57 kilos, was discussed as a likely runner; Kingsley acknowledged him as a class horse but flagged the query over a strong 3200 metres under that weight.

Value and roughies

Further ($26, 52 kilos) interested Kingsley on price, with a peak UK rating of 114 out of a high-class St Leger and the same three-year-old, light-weight profile as past winners, though Adam was less taken by the horse to the eye. Goody Two Shoes ($51) also drew attention as a consistent mare Adam felt the market may have underrated. Absurd, an eight-year-old having a different preparation this year, remained in Kingsley's mix.

Short lists

Adam's short list: Prasa Nocturne, Valiant King, River of Stars and Goody Two Shoes. Kingsley's: Al Riffa, Prasa Nocturne, River of Stars, Absurd and Further.

Kingsley will return after the barrier draw to finalise his selections at the call of the card on Monday.