Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge Ep 1 | 7 Key Factors to Find the 2025 Cup Winner

Overview

In the first episode of his Million Dollar Melbourne Cup 2025 Challenge, Kingsley outlines the seven factors he uses to find a Cup winner and invites viewers to share their own. His stated goal is to back the winner to win a million dollars, something he says he has never achieved.

The Plan and the Background

Kingsley explains the series will run over four episodes. Episode one covers his seven factors. Episode two, after the weights are released on September 16, will incorporate viewer comments and look at key contenders. A third episode after the Caulfield Cup (October 18) will go through the fields. Episode four, on the Saturday night before the Cup, is when he reveals what he plans to back — only if he finds horses worth backing.

He recalls his biggest result: in 2009 he had $62,000 on Shocking, trained by Mark Kavanagh and ridden by Corey Brown, collecting around $550,000. His closest attempt at a million was on My Lucky Day, beaten by Americain.

The Seven Factors

1. Weight. In a 3200m race, Kingsley says weight matters more. He takes the average weight of the field (51.7kg in 2024), adds 2kg, and gives a negative score to horses carrying 54kg or more. He notes the 2025 minimum weight is 57kg and that top and bottom weights have been raised 1kg. He references Phar Lap carrying 68kg and running eighth.

2. Trainer. Kingsley points to Bart Cummings' 12 Cups, ahead of Lee Freedman on five. Cummings' principles included "train the race you're aiming for," a 10,000m rule of miles in the legs, seven prep races, and a Derby Day backup. Kingsley admits he has under-valued trainer before, citing 2024 runners from Brian Ellison (first Cup runner in 20 years) and Harry Eustace, both inexperienced with Cup preparation.

3. Running style. Only three horses since 2000 have sat in the first four and won: Delta Blues (2006), Vow and Declare (2019) and Twilight Payment (2020), the only leader to win, trained by Joseph O'Brien for Lloyd Williams. Kingsley prefers horses that sit off the pace with cover, and crosses off on-pacers.

4. Sectionals. He looks for fast last 200m and 400m sectionals, particularly in lighter-weighted horses, and avoids horses from slowly run races. He cites 2024 winner Knight's Choice, trained by Sheila Laxon, and notes he does not use breeding as a factor. He mentions TKZ ratings — cam, cruising and acceleration — to be released the Saturday night before the Cup.

5. Distance. The ability to run a strong 3200m. Examples include So You Think, who did not get the trip, and Buckaroo, who had never won past 1800m before running in the 2400m Caulfield Cup and then the Cup.

6. Lead-up race. From 2000, the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate lead on six winners each, with the Geelong Cup third; 15 of 25 winners came from those three. He lists beaten favourites who had no Australian lead-up, including Vauban (2024, 2023), Deauville Legend, Yucatan and others, and questions older imports arriving without a run.

7. Odds. Since 1861, only 20 of 164 Cups have been won by horses at $31 or over. He references Viewed, Prince of Penzance (Michelle Payne, Darren Weir) and Knight's Choice. In the 2025 futures market he notes Sir Delius and Via Sistina at $13, Vauban at $15 and Aliana at $21, but says he is not betting yet.

What Kingsley Wants From Viewers

He asks viewers to share their own factors and how his could be improved before episode two.