2025 The Everest Tips & Best Bets

Standfirst

Ahead of Everest day on Saturday, Kingsley shares his early form study on the race, focusing on Ka Ying Rising's ability to handle a fast pace and how the Australian runners compare on his ratings.

Ka Ying Rising and the pace

Kingsley reviewed Ka Ying Rising's Hong Kong form, paying particular attention to how the horse handled a fast early pace. His last race at Sha Tin was his fastest early-pace race, and Kingsley notes the horse showed strong early speed despite not jumping well, settling second under Zac Purton. Purton could have led but chose to sit second, which matches how Ka Ying Rising usually races. Kingsley highlights the acceleration shown in the straight, noting Purton eased up near the finish and the horse could have won further.

On ratings, Kingsley cites an overall figure of 108 (arguing it could have been 110) and a peak of 116.8, describing it as elite level and comparing it to Black Caviar's range. The key positive for Kingsley is that Ka Ying Rising produced this off a fast pace, easing his earlier concern about the horse coping with a high-pressure race. He notes the horse drops in weight and drew barrier seven, which he considers ideal.

The Australian runners' ratings

Kingsley ran through each Australian runner's peak rating on the same scale: Briasa 102, Overpass 101–102, Jimmy Star 105, War Machine 100, Mazu 94, Joliestar 105, Lady Shannon Doa 102 (over 1200m; 97 at Randwick), Magic Time under 100, and Tempted 96. He suggests a figure around 105-plus is needed to win. He rules out several runners, including Mazu, Jedabel, Angel Capital, Magic Time and Tempted, believing the pace will be too strong for them.

The map

Kingsley expects a fast-run Everest. He predicts Overpass (barrier nine) and Mazu (barrier two) to go forward, with Mazu possibly leading and Ka Ying Rising following Overpass across. He expects Purton to sit outside the lead or one-off the fence. Briasa (barrier 10) is tipped to go back, as is Jimmy Star (barrier 11). Kingsley has concerns about Jimmy Star getting too far back from that draw, and wants Joliestar (barrier five, James McDonald) to sit sixth or seventh rather than settle too far back.

Kingsley's assessment and bets

After adjusting ratings for pressure and travel, Kingsley's figures were: Ka Ying Rising 107 (two points off for travel, down from 109), Jimmy Star 104, Joliestar 102 and Lady Shannon Doa 102, then a drop to Briasa 99, Overpass 98, War Machine 97 and others lower. He states nothing will beat Ka Ying Rising at its best, but flags travel, conditions and the Randwick track as the unknowns.

Kingsley nominates Joliestar and Lady Shannon Doa as his value bets, forgiving Lady Shannon Doa's recent Moonee Valley run given her strong fast-tempo record. On the market, he notes Ka Ying Rising at $180 with Ladbrokes, Joliestar at $7 (expecting around $8), and Lady Shannon Doa around $13 (expecting $15–16). He is waiting on prices and did not back War Machine at 20/1 despite viewing it as fair value.

Kingsley says he will do further work and revisit the race on Friday and Saturday.