Melbourne Cup 2025 Best Bets & Tips | Betting to Win $1,000,000

Overview

The 2025 Melbourne Cup is days away, and in episode four Kingsley revisits the 10 factors introduced in episode one, scoring every horse in the field before revealing his shortlist for the call of the card.

How the Ratings Work

Kingsley assigns each runner a score out of 10 based on ticks and crosses across factors including running style, sectionals, distance, track condition, weight, breeding, trainer, jockey, class and leadup races. He has set his track condition assessment at about a soft 7, with rain forecast for Monday and cup day.

The Top Scorers

Only one horse scores a perfect 10: Further, for Andrew Balding and Mickey D. Kingsley points to a Newbury win and a fourth in the UK St Leger behind Scandinavia (who is also in the cup at about 10 to 1). Further handles the wet, is bred to stay via Galileo, draws barrier seven, and Kingsley expects odds around 25 to 30 to 1.

Al Rifer scores nine. Drawn wide in barrier 19 with Mark Zahra riding for Brian, the weight is the only concern. Kingsley expects an average tempo to suit him.

Absurd and Press Nocturn both score eight. Kingsley cites Absurd's unlucky 2024 cup run and expects 20 to 25 to 1. Press earns credit for his fourth in the Caulfield Cup over a shorter, unsuitable trip.

Horses He Rates Higher Than the Screen

River of Stars scores six on screen but Kingsley rates it eight personally, noting it was the only horse to finish on strongly from midfield in a fast-run Caulfield Cup, finishing second, and is well in at the weights.

Vorban (eight) and Flatten the Curve (six) also feature on his secondary list, the latter for good overseas ratings and a liking for wet ground.

Horses He Is Against

Kingsley passes on several well-backed runners. He questions whether Buckaroo (seven) stays 3200. Valiant King (six), the second favourite, has won only two races and Kingsley considers it under the odds at an expected $7.50. Half Yours (seven), the favourite, has never been past 2400 and Kingsley suspects it was set for the Caulfield Cup. He also passes on Maidan, Middle Earth, Torren Zenino, Royal Supremacy, One Smooth Operator, Goody Two Shoes and Parchment Party, among others.

The Bets

Kingsley's top four to win are Further, Al Rifer, Absurd and Press Nocturn, with Vorban, River of Stars and Flatten the Curve on a secondary list. For exotics, he would box Al Rifer, Absurd, Further, River of Stars and Press Nocturn in a trifecta for first, second and third, and run those same five for first, second and third with the field for fourth. He notes those wanting to add Vorban and Flatten the Curve could box all seven.

Access and Housekeeping

Kingsley directs viewers to sign up for a free one-day trial at the king.zone for a full race analysis suite including markets, rated prices, selections, ratings and comments for every race on cup day, with the free day applying to whichever day you sign up.

Kingsley says he will return on Monday night to confirm his final selections after the call of the card.