Who Will Win the 2025 Melbourne Cup?

Standfirst

With the weights released and the 2025 Melbourne Cup seven weeks away, Kingsley is joined by racing analyst and self-described Melbourne Cup tragic Adam Sparrow to work through the weights, the key chances and the factors they use to find a winner.

The Weights

Al Riffer heads the weights on 59 kilos, with the bottom weight at 51 — an 8-kilogram spread, compared with just 5.5 kilos last year (Vauban 55.5 to a 50 limit). Adam stressed weight matters more the further a race runs, and becomes significant over a mile and a half or two miles. He noted Kingston Town carried 59 and was beaten, and Makybe Diva carried 58 to win her third. Sir Delius comes in at 55.5, which Adam described as a winning weight. Buckaroo rises 2.5 kilos to 57, last year's winner Knight's Choice goes to 55, and Vauban goes up one.

The Key Chances

Al Riffer won the Irish St Leger and shows a good turn of foot, but Kingsley is against it at the price due to the 59 kilos and the likelihood of no Australian lead-up run.

Sir Delius ran second first-up in the Chelmsford and was eighth in the Arc over 2400 metres, with a peak rating of 102. He is set for an Underwood, then a Cox Plate, then the Cup. The query is the 3200 metres, as he hasn't won past 2400. Kingsley is not penning him and wants to see more.

Vauban ran third in the Chelmsford, has a peak rating of 105, and started favourite in the last two Cups. Now trained by Gay Waterhouse, both believe the change may add speed to his racing. He is on Kingsley's short list and heads to the Caulfield Cup.

Revelare won last Saturday in the Archer, relaxes well and gets in on 51.5, though it needs to improve on its peak rating of 97.

Birdman ran on well in the Chelmsford, has a winnable 51 kilos and a peak rating of 95, but has only won over 2600 metres. Adam suggested Chris Waller may be setting it for the Cup and named it as the horse he'd take a price about, at $26.

Buckaroo rises to 57 and hasn't won past 1800 metres; Kingsley is against it, citing the weight and distance.

The Factors

Kingsley outlined the factors he is building to find a winner: weight, trainer (including a trainer's experience preparing a Cup horse), running style (favouring horses that relax midfield with a turn of foot), sectionals and acceleration, distance, breeding, lead-up races (chiefly the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate in Australia, plus overseas races such as the Irish St Leger and Caulfield Cup form), and odds. He added track condition as a further factor after viewer feedback, and noted a fence bias has often appeared in recent Melbourne Cup weeks.

Where They Stand

Kingsley currently has Sir Delius and Vauban in mind, while Adam nominated Birdman and possibly Absurd, with Scandinavia and Middle Earth also mentioned as horses to watch.

Episode three will follow after the Cox Plate, running through every runner in the field.