$2M Flooded The Pool In 10 Seconds (Here's What Happened) | The Grind Ep. 12

Everest Day and the crowd

The article summarises episode 12 of The Grind, in which Kingsley covers multi bets, the World Pool figures from Everest day, and race analysis from the Caulfield Cup and Randwick meetings.

Kingsley opens by noting that around 50,000 young fans attended Randwick on Saturday for Everest day, run by Racing New South Wales and the ATC. He says the event had been years in the planning and that keeping those young fans returning to racing is the ongoing question. He also mentions Ka Ying Rising travelling over from Hong Kong, describing him as the best sprinter in the world.

Why Kingsley avoids multis

Kingsley explains why he does not take multi bets. Using an example of three legs at $2 each (paying $8), he argues the staking is uneven: a $100 stake effectively becomes $100 on leg one, $200 on leg two and $400 on leg three. If two legs win and one loses, you lose the $100. He contrasts this with staking each leg separately to win a set amount, which can leave you in front even when one leg loses.

His second objection is that a multi must be placed in one location, so you cannot shop around for the best price on each leg. He notes bookies bet different prices, and that different tote pools (New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland) hold different amounts. He also points out that a multi is placed all at once, whereas he prefers to time bets when he thinks a horse has reached its peak price. He allows that a pro might use a multi to get more money on an incorrectly priced runner.

The World Pool numbers

Kingsley reviews the Everest World Pool. He says that with 10 seconds to go and all horses in the barriers, the pool held about $4 million, finishing at $6 million — roughly $2 million of late money. He notes Ka Ying Rising went from about $1.30 out to $1.45, and compares several runners against the Betfair market, finding little in the way of overs. He uses this to reiterate that pros do not let horses pay huge overs, and recommends measuring your prices against the Betfair SP or bookies SP.

Race analysis and site factors

Kingsley walks through several races using the King Zone tools, which he says are available to view for past dates without membership. He looks at the Caulfield Cup, where he backed Half Yours ($3), and discusses River of Stars (100/1, finished second) as a run better than it looked given the tempo. He examines Private Eye, Tentyris, Clear Thinking and Chio Wolf, matching factors such as class edge, race pressure, ideal distance and peak rating last start, and testing them against race strength (90-plus for Saturday class). He explains that overlays are best judged on the bullet price against the open price, and that horses flagged as good value in early betting showed better long-term results in his samples.

What's coming up

Kingsley notes there is no Grind next week, with episode three of the Melbourne Cup preview to follow the Cox Plate, and says Friday's Launceston and Moonee Valley cards on the King Zone will be free to view.

He closes by encouraging viewers to shop around for prices and stay disciplined with their staking.