Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds

Champions Day CHAOS - Why I'm Against Both Favourites in the Five Diamonds

With three days of the carnival done and one to go, Kingsley walks through his Max Bet selections for Saturday, focusing on the Five Diamonds at Rosehill and a strong bet at Eagle Farm.

The Five Diamonds Setup

Kingsley likes the look of Rosehill race eight, the Five Diamonds. His key point is pace: he expects the race to be run fast, with the two favourites both drawn to lead or press. He has two win bets in the race, Militarize (number seven) and Viviane (number 13), and he is laying both market leaders.

Transatlantic, drawn barrier 13 with Tommy Berry and 59 kilos, he prices at $4.40 against a market of around $2.93, and expects a drift. His negatives are the barrier (needing to be used early), the 59 kilos, and stepping up to 1,800m for the first time. Rise at Dawn, drawn barrier one, he prices at $9 against about $6. He notes the horse has led its last two without winning, hasn't won past 1,700m, faces more pressure here, and isn't racing as well as in the autumn. He also flags Bullet Point (about $8), brought over by Haggas with solid UK ratings, but points to a poor last start at York and the extra pressure of racing in Australia.

The Two Backs

Militarize is the horse Kingsley likes most. He was priced at $8 by the market, which Kingsley called clearly wrong, and has since firmed to about $5.50, where he still rates value. Militarize has a class speed weight rating of 99, four points clear of the field, and topped multiple metrics. Kingsley notes the horse hasn't won for two years and lists jockey Joao Moreira as a negative on Australian return-on-investment grounds, not ability.

Viviane he prices at $7, against a market of $8.50 to around $9.50 or $10. Viviane raced only four days earlier in the Big Dance over 1,600m, hitting the line strongly. Kingsley believes the fitness, the four-day back-up and the early pace will see Viviane get the 1,800m under Kieran Maher. He also mentions Firestorm at $13, coming out of the Group 1 Empire Rose, as a place chance suited by the pressure.

Exotics Angle

Kingsley sees value in exotics here. If the pace is fast and Militarize wins, he argues you can predict the horses suited by that scenario, namely Firestorm and Viviane. He suggests box quinellas, box trifectas or first fours. If they go slow, he notes Rise at Dawn and Bullet Point could feature instead, so grouping horses by likely race setup is his approach.

Eagle Farm - Cavalryman

Kingsley's other strong bet is Cavalryman in Eagle Farm race six, taken at $4.20 with Ladbrokes. Last start he ran second to Mr. Buster while racing three wide with no cover over 2,100m, which Kingsley rated a big run. Cavalryman gets a weight drop of around three or four kilos, an ideal drop back to 1,800m, and a better barrier (two). Pacifiers went on two starts ago and coincided with his highest-ever rating. He rates second pick Victory Flame, whom Cavalryman beat last time, as poorly drawn in barrier nine, and is against the remaining runners.

He will return for the grind on Monday to wrap up the carnival.