🤯 Crunched to $2.40… But Paid $3.10 if You Did THIS

Canberra Race Two: A Look at Guerrera and Tote Value

Kingsley reviews the golden bullet for the day at Canberra race two, number three, Guerrera, which also came through as the best bet of the day.

The Runner and the Metrics

Kingsley points to Guerrera showing up strongly across all the metrics. He notes the runner was coming down from the Gold Coast to Canberra for a new trainer and was having its first start in this environment. Because of that, his comment on the runner was that he wanted to wait and see some money for it in betting before committing.

How the Price Moved

The TKZ opened at $2.60 and came into $2.40. The bullet price on the horse was $2.20. Kingsley describes the betting as pretty solid, which is why his approach was to wait until the last couple of minutes in the market.

Looking at the dynamic odds screen he referenced in a previous video, the price was around $2.50. Ladbrokes stayed at overs the whole way, sitting at $2.80 before settling at $2.40 on the day.

The Best Tote Difference

The main point Kingsley draws out is the best tote figure. While the fixed odds sat at $2.40, the best tote paid $3.10 on the day. He explains that country race tote pools can kick out larger dividends because there is not much money in them. In this case the pools he mentions were 30,000, 15,000 and 6,500 in the Queensland tote pool.

That gap meant a runner crunched to $2.40 in the fixed markets paid $3.10 for anyone who took the best tote option.

Kingsley's Takeaway

His suggestion is to be patient with bets and stay aware of the market, particularly for horses under $10 on country races. If you have missed the price on that kind of runner, his approach is to put it on best tote with SP, given the potential for the tote pools to return a better dividend.

Kingsley signs off looking ahead to the weekend and backing a winner.