Danger in the Epsom, Value in the Metrop | Max Bet Ep 10

Overview

This is Max Bet Episode 10, covering a weekend of Group One racing. Kingsley focuses on the Metropolitan as his race of the group ones, then turns to the Epsom. He notes the mix of racing and the NRL grand final featuring his Broncos.

Why the Metrop Stands Out

Kingsley likes the Metrop for two reasons: the pace and the weights. Over 2400m he expects good early tempo, so he wants horses that settle midfield, off the pace, or come off unsuitable tempos last start. On weights, he notes Vorban (58.12) and Arapjo (58) giving around 8 kilos to a large group of horses on roughly 50 kilos (numbers 9 through 19). He believes 8 kilos is too much despite the class edge of the top-weights. His class-speed-weight ratings show the field fairly even, so he thinks the result comes down to race shape.

Metrop Selections

Solar Spain is his top pick, marked at $4.20 (up to $6 available). He notes the horse won in Ireland over 3300m, drops in weight off a Newcastle Cup win, is three-from-three this prep, and looked to be easing up on the line. He plans to back it on Saturday.

He lays several top-weights: Vorban ($26 marked, $13 live) as an 8-year-old out of form; Arapjo ($26 marked) on the pace setup and weight; and Changing of the Guard ($19 marked) coming off a five-horse field into a harder race. Birdman is marked $12 against a $6 price due to barrier 17.

Kingsley rates value in the lightly-weighted horses: White Cliff (marked $26, available 70-90), Don Diego de Vega, Flying Bandit ($26), and Royal Supremacy and Etna Rossa for exotics. He suggests staking four horses to win the same amount, backing Solar Spain to win $200 and roughies to win $400, plus small exotics.

The Epsom

Kingsley calls the Epsom tough and says he needs more work on it. Autumn Glow is marked $2.80 with clearly the best ratings, but she draws barrier 14 with more pace and steps up to 1600m with Kieran McEvoy. He shows her sectional ratings and believes she can sprint off fast tempos, though being trapped wide is the danger. He expects her to win but doesn't love the price.

He is against Pericles ($15 marked) this start, noting a top rating of 98, and prefers Chio Wolf (104 last time) at group level. Pier is marked $9 (available $12) and rated a genuine place chance. Other overlays include Will He Do It ($8.50 marked), El Castello, and Swift Falcon ($16).

Close

Kingsley urges disciplined staking through the group races to protect the bank ahead of Melbourne Cup Carnival, with country and provincial max bets to follow on the King Zone from 10:30 Saturday morning.