How to Find Extra Value Bets Using TKZ Lays and Overlays | Pro Punting Strategy Explained

Standfirst

Kingsley walks through how he uses the TKZ form screen to find additional betting opportunities beyond the official tips, focusing on races that contain a short-priced lay. This companion piece summarises the method he demonstrates using races from Wednesday, July 2nd.

Starting with the lays

Kingsley explains that on the TKZ form screen you can view all his lays for the day by going from the official tips to the lays section. Lays are horses he doesn't like. The races he focuses on for extra bets are those where he has a lay priced at $5 or less. As an example, Eagle Farm race two had number nine, Sweet Hesitation, at a market price of $2.45. Because he has that horse marked much longer and it carries negative traits, he considers $2.45 under the odds — and where a horse is under the odds, he says there is usually value elsewhere in the race.

Betting only inside the top four

Once he has identified a race with a short lay, Kingsley looks at his four selections for that race. He states he would never back a horse outside the top four when using the TKZ form website. According to Kingsley, the top four selections win approximately 70% of races based on the stats since the platform started. In Eagle Farm race two his selections were five, six, eight and 10.

Using the overlays screen

Kingsley then moves to the odds screen to find the overlays, marked green down the side. He notes this screen suits a "next to go" punter checking races with a couple of minutes remaining. In Eagle Farm race two the overlays were numbers six and 10 — both in his top four — so those were the bets. The favourite won that race, so the bets lost, but Kingsley points out the process. He recommends checking a dynamic odds screen to find the best price. For six and 10 the best prices were on Betfair at $13 and $27.

In Sandown race six, number four Bluestone was the lay. His selections were nine, five, two and seven. The overlays were number five Galileus (bullet price $9.50) and number 19 Southern Stock at 81, which was outside the top four and disregarded. That left one bet, Galileus, which won and paid $32 on Betfair versus $23 with the bookies.

Where to place the bet and staking

Kingsley advises taking the best available price on Betfair, best tote with SP, or corporate bookies — but only using corporates when their prices align with Betfair. He gives the example of taking $5.50 with the TAB being acceptable when Betfair is around the same, but taking $7 with a corporate is not when Betfair is paying $8.40.

On staking, Kingsley notes these overlay bets are not as strong as the official tips, so he half-stakes them. He backs official tips to win $200 with a maximum stake of $100, and these overlay bets to win $100 with a maximum stake of $50. He notes this scales — a plan targeting $50 to win would mean $25 on overlays with a $12.50 maximum.

The method applies to races where there is a lay at $5 or less, giving punters more races to bet in.