Losing Is a Gift: Why Punters Must Embrace the Pain | The Grind Ep.10

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In episode 10 of The Grind, Kingsley uses a Kobe Bryant quote about losing to frame an attitude for punters, then walks through weekend fluctuations and a detailed analysis review of the TKZ system since June 12.

The Attitude to Losing

The video opens with a clip in which the speaker describes losing as "exciting" because it exposes weaknesses and provides information to improve. Kingsley reflects on this, noting that only about one in five of his bets win, and that on roughly half his days he wins and half he loses. He stresses keeping the process the same whether winning or losing — covering analysis, review and staking — and says the hardest part is facing up to a losing run and doing the work yourself to turn it around.

Weekend Fluctuations

Kingsley reviews several Sydney races. In Race 6 at Randwick, Apocalyptic firmed from around $1.90 into $1.70, while Toupara drifted from about $6 out to $14. He notes Apocalyptic was suited by the rise to 1600m and was strong through the line after sitting three wide last start. In the Epsom, Autumn Glow started $1.80, helped by Magneter and Willie Do It coming out of the race. In the Metrop, Kingsley was on Solar Spain and laid several weight-carriers including Vorbjorn (drifted 8 to 14) and Birdman. He also discusses Sir Delius, who won despite drifting to $8.80, and Aliano, backed from around $5.50 into $3.80.

The Analysis Review

Recording on Monday, Kingsley runs queries on the TKZ system covering June 12 to October 4. Across all 51,000 bets at high price, the benchmark loss is about 5.2%, illustrating how hard it is to profit in 2025. Key results he reports:

- Official tips: 1637 bets, 343 winners, 21% strike rate, +3.65% profit. - Golden bullets: 255 bets, 27% strike rate, minus 6.2%. - Backs: around 1000 bets, 23% strike rate, +5.5%. - Good roughies: 331 bets, 7.8% winners, +19.4%. - Selection one: 5150 bets, 27% strike rate, +5%. - Lays: around 3500 bets, minus 14%.

He emphasises that ROI matters more than strike rate, and that value — not backing winners — is the goal.

Factors That Help and Hurt

Kingsley runs individual factors between $1.50 and $20 open prices. He finds many ratings and factors don't profit alone but beat the market benchmark and add small edges when combined. Jockey edge added little. Race pressure with selection one returned +9%, horses trained at the track +10.6%, and class edge added roughly 2%. Weight drop (minus 10%), upside factor and excuses last start were currently unprofitable. "Good value in early betting" showed +7.3% alone and +10.6% with selection one, reinforcing his two-step process: the factors must line up, and he must like the price.

Kingsley closes by encouraging viewers to share factors in the comments so everyone can keep learning.