Max Bet Ep.8: The $2 Melbourne Cup Clue + Best Early Bet in WA

Standfirst

In episode 8 of Max Bet, Kingsley works through two Saturday races — the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield and race one over 1,000 metres at Belmont in the west — landing on Sir Delius and Spicy Thang as his two selections.

Sir Delius in the Underwood Stakes

Kingsley rates Sir Delius the horse in the Underwood, noting the horse ran second to Lindermann in the Chelmsford in a run he thought had more merit than the clock suggested, partly because Sir Delius was trapped a little wide and didn't settle well. His class speed weight ratings read 102 first up in Australia and 100 second up over an unsuitable 1,600m off a slow tempo.

The figure Kingsley focuses on is the last-200m acceleration rating of 154 off an early 88, which he calls very high and reads as a sign the horse wants more than 2,000 metres — pointing toward the Melbourne Cup. He compares this to Buckaroo, whose best runs come off fast tempos and who has never recorded a 154, and to Moira, whose 94 time rating and slow sectionals mean an eight-point improvement would be needed to reach 102.

Kingsley notes Sir Delius does not top the ratings screen — Zardozi and Middle Earth rate above on class speed weight — but attributes the $2 quote to expected improvement, which he says the market factors heavily. From barrier 10, he expects Craig Williams to try to get in around fifth to seventh, and believes the race is effectively over if Sir Delius settles sixth one-off. The risk he is willing to take is the horse getting trapped wide with no cover.

Market and other runners

Kingsley took around $2.20 to $2.30 about Sir Delius, and at the time of recording listed Ladbrokes at $2.05 and Betfair around $2.12 after commission. He mentions Betfair's half-price commission on Victorian racing midweek. Moira had firmed from $7.50 into $5.50 (tab) and into $5 (Ladbrokes), which he reads as expected improvement, but he could not back Moira at that price.

He is against Buckaroo, priced $9 to his own $5.50 assessment, given two wins from 17 in Australia and a need for a fast tempo he doesn't expect. Desert Lightning ($21, marked $13) is chancy on pace but faces a new distance and higher race strength. He flags Middle Earth ($23) as one to watch over spring, and Zardozi as capable if she puts it together despite no win in 15 starts. Aniset he sees as value each-way at around $5 the place.

Best early bet in the west: Spicy Thang

At Belmont over 1,000 metres, Kingsley wants to be on speed and identifies Spicy Thang as a genuine 1,000m horse on a 7-day backup, fit, and drawn to lead after sitting third off a fast tempo last start. His main danger is Snitlet, coming out of a 1,400m group race with strong race strength (84 versus Spicy's 75–79), but first up with no trial or jump-out Kingsley can find, raising doubt over readiness. He also questions barrier one for Snitlet over the short trip.

Kingsley took around $6.50 to $7.50 about Spicy Thang and considers 5.50 to 6.50 still good, believing one of those two horses will win.

Both selections are early bets already placed, with Sir Delius and Spicy Thang the two Kingsley is running with into Saturday.