🔥 Moir Stakes MELTDOWN? The Speed Map Puzzle That Could Blow the Race Wide Open! | Max Bet Ep 6

Overview

In Episode 6 of the Max Bet show, Kingsley works through two races: the Moir Stakes over 1,000 metres at The Valley in Melbourne, and race 9 at Randwick, the Tramway. He notes he is recording on a Thursday night and is coming off a couple of winning weeks after a weekend off.

The Moir Stakes and the CAM Metric

Kingsley highlights how much early speed is in the Moir Stakes on paper, saying he hasn't seen a race with so much pace for a long time. He uses the race to explain the Cruising Acceleration Metric (CAM), which averages a horse's predicted cruising rating and its acceleration rating and reflects how fast a race is likely to be run.

He marks Barakil as a lay. Barakil won last start at The Valley over 1,000 metres getting the favours up the fence, but Kingsley notes the horse hasn't won off fast early tempos. On CAM, Barakil cruises at 104 but drops to 86 on acceleration for a CAM of 95, with its strong sprints coming off slow early tempos.

Alabama Lass rates higher on CAM (cruising 103, acceleration 103) but is coming from a straight Flemington 1100-metre race into a Valley 1,000-metre race, and is stepping up in grade. Kingsley also examines Esher, who won at The Valley off a very slow tempo and drew barrier 4, questioning whether it can handle this early pressure, though it carries 50kg against rivals on 56–58.

Kingsley's Moir Stakes View

Kingsley lands on Neons as his selection, arguing Neons has beaten this grade of horse before at his race-strength level, whereas Alabama Lass and Esher are stepping up. He does not consider this the strongest Group One. He also nominates Skybird as an overlay with acceleration to figure, but says the bird is not a bet because it could get too far back over 1,000 metres, unless it drifts to double figures.

The Tramway at Randwick

Kingsley bets on the Tramway and names three chances: Private Eye and Pericles as his two bets, plus Swift Falcon as a knockout. He priced Private Eye at $3 and Pericles at around $7, calling both overlays who can go forward from their draws for their jockeys and settle in the right spots.

Swift Falcon has firmed (6 into 5), and Kingsley thinks the horse suits 1,400 metres and fresh conditions better than 2,000 metres, citing its failure to run down Shangrila Spring in the Frank Packer Plate. He rates its most relevant recent run at 96.

Kingsley lays Linebacker, mainly on price, saying he'd take it on under $7. Linebacker has only won when sitting first or second, drew barrier 16, and has one peak rating (around 100) with the rest closer to 90. He believes it must go forward but may go too hard with the weight, or get back and be beaten.

Close

Kingsley sums up the Tramway as a genuine betting race without a standout, landing on Private Eye and Pericles while noting Swift Falcon as the main danger.