The Bookies That Still Let Me Bet | Max Bet Ep 7

Standfirst

In episode 7 of Max Bet, Kingsley works through Saturday's racing, covering the Makybe Diva Stakes market, two selections he rates as golden bullets, and his frustration with minimum bet limits.

The Makybe Diva Stakes market

Kingsley says he is not particularly keen on the race because there is no pace in it. He notes Mr Bright Side likely leads, but with low race pressure his ratings can throw up rough results, since a horse like Antino or James's runner Via Cina could push forward. He rates Via Sistina the horse to beat at around $1.80 to $1.90, with Tab having bet evens earlier and Ladbrokes at $2.10. He expects Aliana to drift toward the $5 mark.

He compares the "big five" mares on class speed weight, last 600m and last 200m ratings. Via Sistina leads class speed weight on 112 (Cox Plate), or 105 equal with Autumn Glow if that run is excluded, then Lady Shannonoa and Treasure the Moment on 102, and Aliana on 98. On the last 600m, Aliana leads on 146 from Via Sistina on 143 and Treasure the Moment on 141. On the last 200m, Via Sistina leads on 150, Aliana on 141, with the other three around 118–120.

Gangster Granny at Rose Hill

With the track a heavy 10 after rain, Kingsley expects it to improve to about a heavy 8, possibly slow 7. He likes Gangster Granny, who ran second to Autumn Glow over 1100m and steps up to a suitable 1200m. He highlights her 102 rating (recorded on a heavy 10 surface), matching the peak ratings of Autumn Glow, Lady Shannonoa and Treasure the Moment. She is six starts for six placings and marked $2.50 favourite in his market.

He is against Jolly Star, citing 59kg, a query on wet ground (never worse than a soft 5), a first-up run, an Everest target, barrier 7 and likely instructions to go back. He rates Stephie Magnetica a layer, noting she is zero from four over 1200m, one from six first up and unplaced in a recent trial. Lilac from barrier one is the danger if the track becomes leaderish.

Tycoon Star at Flemington

In the Poseidon Stakes over 1100m down the straight, Kingsley backs Tycoon Star at $3 (still available around $2.90). Third up, the horse showed strong early pace in trials and accelerated well to win the McNeil over 1200m. Kingsley values strength and acceleration down the straight and likes that Tycoon Star can get cover. He is against Legacy Bound on a rise in grade and first run down the straight, and less impressed by Devil Knight first up despite a class edge from the Blue Diamond. On class speed weight, he has Tycoon Star ahead on 87 from More and Devil Knight.

Betting limits

Kingsley notes he can only get on with Tab, Ladbrokes and Sportsbet to win $2,000 (around $800 each) before the 9am race-day minimum bet rule in New South Wales applies. He argues limits should be increased, at least for group races.

Kingsley closes by encouraging punters to stay disciplined and enjoy their punting on Saturday.