The Grind Ep 1: My Worst Month in Years

Standfirst

In the first episode of The Grind, Kingsley walks through a difficult recent stretch on the punt, sharing his results, back-testing data and the mindset he uses to keep going through losing runs.

A Tough Run

Kingsley opens by describing the last 10 days as an awful period, noting he hadn't won a single day across that span and that the golden bullets in particular had been performing poorly. He says his confidence hasn't been affected and frames the episode as part of a weekly Monday show where he opens up his form suite and thinking so members can see the life of a professional punter. He states he has bet for over 9,000 days and has seen both low and high periods, and mentions a recent 15-minute phone conversation with an 18-year-old about lessons learned over 25 years of punting.

The Back-Testing Data

Kingsley shares back-testing figures for the model, based on 19,600 historical simulated bets before he began betting off it three months ago. The "best of the best" back-testing showed profits of 13.5% (2023), 14.7% (2022), 11.4% (2024) and 15% for 2025 so far. He notes best tote 3-point figures around 3.3%, and a top fluc figure of 8.7%. Reviewing 2023, he cites a 14.7% profit off 7,691 bets with no losing months. For 2024 he points to an 11.4% profit with two losing months (August -6.8% and March around -6%). He says he typically subtracts about 5% from these figures to reflect what he expects to achieve.

Recent Results Since Launch

The platform launched on 12 June, with results tracked to 20 July. Kingsley reports 510 official tips (golden bullets, good ruffies and backs) for 91 winners at a 17.8% strike rate, showing a 1% profit on the average top price, which he estimates as roughly a 2% loss after his adjustment. He expects both the strike rate and ROI to improve. His number one selections showed a 7.9% profit across 1,797 races and 509 winners (28% strike rate, around $3.50 average price). Selections two, three and four showed losses of 6.4%, 10% and 6.4% respectively. The lays (horses he doesn't like) recorded 173 winners from 1,369, and backing them would have lost 14%. He points to the gap between the lays (-14%) and top selections (+7%) as evidence of an edge.

Mindset and What's Next

Kingsley says July has been the worst month he can recall in a long time and that he has lost significant money, but maintains the data will turn around. He describes a daily routine of gym, filming and working on refining the factors. He notes the market is smaller and prices move quickly midweek, so he is now betting to win around 10-15 grand. He references his fifth pillar, mentality, acknowledging some members have found the run difficult. He also plans to build out an analysis tool, allowing members to construct their own systems using metrics such as class, speed, weight ratings, bullet prices, cam ratings, acceleration and jockey edge, which he hopes to deliver around mid-September once his main programmer returns.

A Note on Perspective

Kingsley closes by sharing a Scottie Scheffler interview about the fleeting nature of winning and the importance of family, relating it to how punters can get carried away by emotion.

Kingsley signs off promising to return next Monday, hopefully with more positive results.