The Grind Ep 4 | Turning Ratings Into Profits – Real Betting Analysis & Mindset in Action

Standfirst

In this ratings-focused episode of The Grind, Kingsley reviews recent results, walks through how he builds and tests his class-speed-weight (CSW) ratings, and shows how he uses them alongside pricing when betting.

Results Review

Kingsley opens with results for the period from 12 June to 9 August (Saturday), noting Sunday's figures hadn't yet updated. He describes another tough week on the punt, with days on Friday and Sunday where he placed no tickets at all — unusual for him.

The official tips numbered 736 selections at a 17% strike rate, running at a loss of 2.76%. He states he expects that figure to be plus 10%, calling the current result disappointing but pointing to the roughly eight-week sample size. The number one selection returned plus 7.7% across 2,674 bets at a 28% strike rate, while the official lays (1,975 selections) lost 12.5% — a roughly 20% swing he views as a sign the model has something to work with.

Improving The Model

Kingsley explains his ongoing process of checking factors, rerunning them, and adding variables to make small gains that add up over time. He describes his system as many separate models — mapping, speed, sectionals, video comments, jockeys, trainers — combined and weighted to form the final numbers on the site, and says he regularly reviews those weightings.

He also discusses a newly developed TKZ pricing model now moving into live testing. Filtering on probability difference (bullet price versus high price) between -200 and -5 returned 1,579 bets, 346 winners, a 21.9% win rate and an ROI of 8.7%. Adding his number one selection produced 948 bets, 26% strike rate and an ROI of 11.4%. He plans further testing and hopes to release this information to members in around six weeks.

Understanding And Using Ratings

Kingsley references a poll on the den where 50% of respondents said they don't understand how to use ratings. He credits Daniel O'Sullivan of betsmart.racing ($29 per month) as a mentor and points to O'Sullivan's free educational articles.

He explains that his RSR/time rating is a numerical representation of how well a horse ran, and that the CSW rating combines Class (race strength), Speed (best speed figure) and Weight (adjusted for the day's impost). Using Saturday's Adelaide race won by Cuman, he shows how he arrived at figures such as 93 for Cuman, 90 for Recommendation and 96 for Is It Me, and discusses the difficulty of judging first-up runs, distance changes and track conditions.

The Limits Of Pricing Off Ratings

Kingsley quotes O'Sullivan's warning that marking a horse at a price does not make it a correct assessment, and that betting purely on that basis is dangerous. He describes how large operators blend their own prices with public market odds, weighting and rescaling to 100%. Using the Adelaide race one example (won by Peter's Heart), he shows how ratings alone would not have identified his bet, which came from external factors such as expected pace, the number of starts, weight and a seven-day backup.

Testing And Applying CSW On The Site

Kingsley runs through basic ROI tests from his 2018-onward database, including last-start rating, best of last two, highest yearly rating, combined algorithms, "RSR starts", region-focused and "sim 10" methods, most showing small profits for rank one. On the King Zone, backing the top three CSW ratings finds around 50% of winners; the top three lost 3.6%, but filtering for overlays (probability difference -400 to -5) returned a profit of 8.4%, and adding the top selection returned 10% across 544 bets at a 29% strike rate.

Kingsley closes by inviting members to share their own experience with ratings and any technology they've tested.