Why I'm Against the Favourite in Eagle Farm R2 | TKZ Form Preview

Standfirst

Kingsley previews Race 2 at Eagle Farm, laying out why he prefers the top pick Just Precious over the favourite, Without Parallel.

The Case For Just Precious

Kingsley's main pick is number one, Just Precious, running second up on Saturday. The horse comes off a first-up run over 1,000 metres, which Kingsley describes as unsuitable, adding that the run was better than it looked and came in a harder race. Just Precious now drops back in class.

Kingsley points to several positive factors: very strong race strength, significant race pressure with plenty of pace in the race, a rank one acceleration, a rank two cam score, and a rank two class speed and weight rating. He also notes the ideal distance of 1,200 metres, the easier race, and the horse being fitter for that first-up run. There is a small gear change on the horse as well.

He rates it good value, saying he intends to back it at $5 and $5.50 later in the afternoon.

Why He's Against The Favourite

The favourite is Without Parallel, drawn in barrier one. Kingsley is against the horse for several reasons: barrier one, more pressure in the race, a better class race, and the horse stepping up to 1,200 metres for the first time. He believes those factors combined will be too much for Without Parallel.

At $3.20 in the market, Kingsley considers the price too short and expects the horse to drift.

The Danger

Kingsley flags Baresa, coming up from Sydney, as an interesting runner for third. The horse tackles 1,200 metres for the first time, which he thinks will suit. At $4 he sees it as a little well found in the market, but notes it brings different form and is probably the danger to Just Precious if it goes to a new level.

The Verdict

Kingsley sees this as a good betting race, driven largely by his view that the favourite Without Parallel is too short. His preference is the top pick Just Precious at the prices mentioned, with Baresa the main threat.

Kingsley's summary is to consider whether this is a bet you really want to place, and for free and confidential support to call the number on screen or visit the website.