Queanbeyan Race 7 Preview: Azzucca Leads Kingsley's Tips

A fast-run 1200m over $30,000 at Queanbeyan on a fine day and a Good surface, with the rail out three metres from the 900m to the 275m and a cutaway applying. Ten runners, and the shape looks the story.

The race and the conditions

This is a compact ten-horse sprint where the weights spread from Human Shield's 62kg top burden down to a light 55kg on East Harlem and Walk Up Start. Top weight Human Shield (2) resumes first-up, having won at Boorowa last time out, but steps up in grade here. It is a race with genuine class spread and, on the numbers, genuine pace.

The pace picture

The tempo band reads Fast with a pressure figure of 83.71 percent, so this is a strongly run affair rather than a soft one. On predicted settling position, the runner with the lowest ppir is Azzucca (8), whose ppir of 1 means it settles closest to the lead. Zoucat (4) sits next forward on a ppir of 2. From there the field strings out sharply: Vinari (9) is midfield on a ppir of 5, while East Harlem (13) is projected right back with a ppir of 13 and Walk Up Start (14) last on 14. A fast tempo up front and back-markers who can sprint is the classic set-up for a swooping finish, and several of Kingsley's fancies are held-up types who need exactly that.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Azzucca (8), rated $7.50 against a $4.80 market this morning, which is the one honest knock — the market has it shorter than his line. Second-up and fitter for a run, with Boudvillain aboard, it ran on strongly when the tempo lifted last start and drops to an easier assignment, and it maps to sit closest to the lead.

His second pick Vinari (9), which he calls the biggest threat to the tip, is rated $5.50 in line with a $5.50 market. It won last start fighting hard on the line after being held up, and while it gets back, the speed on and its finishing burst suit.

His third pick East Harlem (13) is rated $4.80 against a $5.50 market — Kingsley's number is shorter than the release quote, so he sees value. It drops to 55kg with a soft run from barrier one, backs up quickly and hits the line hard, and it carries the Official Tip in this race, flagged as a Back.

His fourth pick Battle Abbey (11) is rated $26 against a $20 market. It trains at the track and rates strongly, but it hasn't won in nearly three years, resumes and maps a long way back, so it needs the race to fall right.

The metrics

CAM, the composite ability rating, is topped by Geostorm (5) on camRank 1, with Battle Abbey second and Azzucca third. On CSW — the class-speed-weight time rating — Battle Abbey sits clear on cswRank 1, with Vinari second and Human Shield third. Cruising speed, a horse's sustainable travelling speed, favours Geostorm on cruisingRank 1 ahead of Human Shield, though Geostorm's ppir of 7 and 96 starts at nine years old temper the enthusiasm. Acceleration — the finishing burst — is headed by Battle Abbey on accelerationRank 1, then Vinari, then East Harlem, which ties the back-markers who can sprint straight to the fast tempo. Human Shield has the worst acceleration of the field on accelerationRank 10, a mark against it up in grade.

The screenshot line: the two best accelerations in the field, Battle Abbey and Vinari, both settle off midfield into a genuinely fast tempo — and Kingsley's top pick Azzucca is the one drawing them forward from the front.

What to watch: whether the fast tempo brings Vinari and East Harlem into it late, or whether Azzucca can hold on from the front.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.