Devonport Synthetic Race 8 Preview, Tips & Rated Prices
Devonport Synthetic Race 8 preview: a slow tempo, Azonto's turn of foot and where Kingsley's rated prices split from the market.
A seven-horse field on the Devonport synthetic, a slow tempo and a Golden Bullet at the top of the card. This is a race where where you settle matters more than usual.
The race
Race 8 at Devonport Synthetic jumps at 4:34pm AEST for $45,000, run on a synthetic surface with the rail True and overcast skies overhead. Seven line up. It is a compact, competitive affair with several last-start winners in the mix, which is why the way the tempo shapes up carries so much weight.
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The pace picture
This is a slow-tempo race with a low pressure reading of 16.13 percent, meaning almost no genuine speed pressure is expected up front. Don't Give Up (6) is the only runner mapped to lead on a ppir of 1, with Merlin Beach (8) next closest at 2 and Happy Clan (5) at 3. That shape is the story: in a slow-run affair, the closers have work to do.
That is the caution against several of the fancied runners. Kingsley's top pick sits deep in the run, and both his third and fourth picks are drawn to settle back off a tempo that may not collapse. When the leaders are not pressured, they are hard to run down, so the turn of foot of the backmarkers has to be exceptional to overcome the map.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Azonto (7), the Golden Bullet and one of his main plays for the day. Azonto won here last start, drops in the weights and handles the seven-day backup, and the record of three wins from eight at the track speaks for itself. He is rated $2.60 against a $3.10 market this morning, so Kingsley has him shorter than the release price. The one query is the map, with a ppir of 7 leaving him last off a slow tempo.
His second pick Shy Guy (3) maps to sit just off the speed on a ppir of 5, which is the spot to be with the tempo looking slow up front. He brings a class edge and has attracted early money. Kingsley rates him $10 against a $7.50 market this morning, so he is a touch bigger than the market has him. It has been a while between wins, but on his best he is a chance.
His third pick Zewinna (4) is the value angle. She is rated $8 against a $9 market this morning, so a shade of value there, and this is her ideal trip with a quick backup. The concerns are the slow tempo and a midfield-to-back run off a ppir of 6.
His fourth pick The Longest Yard (2) won well here last start and holds a class edge, but he is up 5kg on that win and gets right back off the speed. He is rated $4.60 against a $3.00 market this morning, so Kingsley has him meaningfully longer than the market and sees plenty against him at the quote.
Won again here last start and drops in the weights, the 7-day backup no issue for this bloke. Best turn of foot in the field and this is his ideal trip, 3 wins from 8 at the track says it all. A Golden Bullet and one of my main plays for the day.
Top-rated on CSW and has the second-best turn of foot in the race. This is her ideal trip, she backs up quick and there's a touch of value about her. Just the slow tempo and old legs to beat from midfield. Third pick.
Maps to sit just off the speed and that's the spot to be with the tempo looking slow up front. Has a class edge and there's been early money. Been a while between drinks but he's a chance if he brings his best. Second pick.
Won well here last start and backs up quick, has a class edge on these. But he's up 5kg on that win and gets right back off the speed in a slow-run affair, plenty against him at the quote. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is Kingsley's composite ability rating, and Azonto tops the field on camRank 1, with Zewinna next best on camRank 2. CSW rates class, speed and time together, and here Zewinna is the standout on cswRank 1, ahead of The Longest Yard on cswRank 2.
Cruising speed measures the tempo a runner can hold, and Don't Give Up leads that on cruisingRank 1, with Shy Guy second on cruisingRank 2. Acceleration captures the turn of foot, and this is where the top pair separate: Azonto owns the best in the field on accelerationRank 1, with Zewinna second on accelerationRank 2. In a slow-run race, that finishing burst is the weapon that can override the map.
Worth noting where Kingsley disagrees with the market on the outsiders. Happy Clan is rated $15 against a $7.50 market this morning and hasn't saluted in over a year, and Merlin Beach is likewise rated $15 against a $7.50 market this morning while dropping a long way in trip. Don't Give Up is rated $23 against an $11 market this morning despite mapping to lead, off a flop last start.
What to watch: whether Azonto's field-best turn of foot can bridge a slow tempo from last, or whether Don't Give Up steals it in front.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.