Hawkesbury Race 6 preview: Legaselli value against the market
Hawkesbury Race 6 preview, tips and rated prices: Kingsley makes Legaselli his top pick over a shorter market as this maiden sets up for late swoopers.
A maiden over an average tempo where the market and the ratings are pointing in different directions, and Kingsley thinks the numbers have the better of it.
The race
Hawkesbury Race 6 jumps at 4:25pm AEST for $42,000, an eight-horse maiden on a fine day over a turf surface with the rail out five metres from the 1100m to the 450m, three metres from the 450m to the winning post, and true for the rest. It is a mix of first starters and lightly raced types, and with a couple of well-fancied newcomers into it at cramped quotes, the shape of the race matters as much as the raw ability.
Today's featured race is free in full — one email, no card.
How it maps
The tempo band reads Average with a pressure rating of 37.27 per cent, so there is no scorching speed to set this up for the backmarkers. That is the key story. Union (5) is the one that maps to lead, the only runner with a ppir of 1, and from the good gate Rachel King can dictate on the fence. The lower the ppir, the closer a horse settles, and Union has the field covered on that count.
The swoopers have work to do. Gimme A Yes (3) maps to get well back on a ppir of 7, and Legaselli (9) settles midfield-to-back on a ppir of 5. In a moderately run race that puts the onus on them to make up ground late rather than get a pace collapse to run into.
Kingsley's four
His top pick is Legaselli (9), and he is blunt that the market is looking the wrong way. Legaselli is rated $4.80 against a $5.00 market this morning, so the value is thin but the case is strong: he won his trial at Gosford leading in, the blinkers come off for the first time, and he drops right back in trip into a maiden. He gets back but has the ratings to be swooping late.
His second pick is Latest Flame (8), a first starter for local trainer Brad Widdup with Chad Schofield aboard. Kingsley reads the booking as a genuine pointer and notes early money, rating him $5.00 in line with a $5.00 market. He calls this one the biggest threat to the favourite.
His third pick is Union (5), the leader, rated $6.00 against a much shorter $3.40 market this morning. Second-up and dropping into maiden grade after battling on strongly three wide with no cover last start, he is the one that controls the tempo. His fourth pick is Gimme A Yes (3), the roughie at the overs, rated $20 against a $91 market this morning after hitting the line hard last start when hooked wide from the back.
Mayweather (1) is the favourite but Kingsley is happy to take him on, rating him $4.60 against a $3.80 market this morning. Resuming off a 661-day break having been beaten a fair way on debut, he is under the odds for mine.
Market's looking the wrong way here. Clearly the best-rated on class and won the trial at Gosford leading in. Blinkers come off for the first time, resuming but the trial has him cherry ripe. Drops right back in trip into a maiden, everything to like. Gets back but has the ratings to be swooping late. Top pick and there's value in the quote.
No comment available for this runner.
No comment available for this runner.
First Starter for a local trainer with Schofield, a gun rider, aboard, that booking is a genuine pointer. Trialled quietly at Rosehill but there's early money and he's clearly got some ability. Second pick and the biggest threat to the top pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
CAM is the composite ability rating, and Velvet Rush (10) tops it on a camRank of 1 at 76.91, though he did little on debut and maps to get back on a ppir of 9. Gimme A Yes is next on camRank of 2.
CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and there Gimme A Yes leads on a cswRank of 1 at 74.32, with Union second and Legaselli third, all three within a whisker at 74.09 and 74.04. Cruising speed measures the pace a horse can sustain, and Union heads it on a cruisingRank of 1 at 72.4, with Mayweather second.
Acceleration is the turn-of-foot rating, and Gimme A Yes is clearly best on an accelerationRank of 1 at 80.33, with Velvet Rush second. The one-line claim: Gimme A Yes owns the best CSW and the best acceleration in the field, but maps to get well back, so plenty to do late.
The verdict
The ratings say Legaselli, the market says Union and Mayweather, and Kingsley has planted his flag with the numbers. Latest Flame is the unknown that could upend all of it.
What to watch: whether the average tempo lets Union control it up front, or gives Legaselli and Gimme A Yes the late target they need.
Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.
This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.