Hawkesbury Race 7 Preview: Punch Lane Leads Rated Picks
Hawkesbury Race 7 tips and rated prices: Punch Lane maps to the lead, Nellie Leylax the roughie play, and where the market and Kingsley disagree.
A $200,000 assignment over the turf at Hawkesbury with the rail True and fine conditions overhead. Eleven go around at 4:25pm AEST, and the shape of it tells you plenty about who can win.
The race
This is a strength-in-depth affair rather than a runaway, and it is fully rated and free to view on theking.zone today. Several runners drop back sharply in trip out of marathon company, which colours everything below. Chris Waller saddles four, Ciaron Maher three, and the field is peppered with premiership jockeys. The story here is a clash between the forward-mappers who get the run of the race and the back-half sprinters who need it to fall their way.
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The pace picture
The tempo band is Average with a pressure reading of 31.75 per cent, so no runaway leader and no crawl either. His top pick Punch Lane (2) is the one who maps to the lead, with a ppir of 1, and he is the standout on cruising speed, the metric for how fast a horse can travel while still relaxed. From there the pressure eases quickly: his second pick Nellie Leylax (4) settles handy at ppir 2, Juja Kibo (5) at 3 and Mr Monaco (6) at 4.
The flip side is the closers. His third pick Soul Of Spain (1) is drawn to get a long way back at ppir 10, Narbold (12) further still at 11, and Valiant King (3) at the tail on 12. On an average tempo those three need luck and a genuine finish to reel in the forward brigade.
Kingsley's selections
His top pick is Punch Lane, rated $4.40 against a $4.00 market this morning. He leads, he is a winner at track and trip, and he holds the best cruising speed in the field. The only quibble is the quote, but on the numbers he heads the list.
His second pick is Nellie Leylax, the official Good Roughie tip, rated $10 against a $12 market this morning. He rates right up to these on the class-speed-weight figure, settles handy off a good map, and his last run was better than the bare result after being held up for room. Schofield in the saddle is a strong booking, and there is value in him.
His third pick is Soul Of Spain, rated $5 against a $5.50 market this morning. He owns the best acceleration in the field by a margin and picks up McDonald, but he gets back a long way first-up and shortened in trip, so he needs the race to unfold from the rear.
His fourth pick is Narbold, rated $4.80 against a $4.00 market this morning. An honest type in terrific form who was beaten a nose last start, Berry takes the ride and there is early money about, but he settles back and looks short enough.
Rolls forward and looks the one that leads, and he's the best of them on cruising. Winner at the track over the trip and he's fit with a solid prep behind him. Only knock is the price - looks well found at the quote for mine. Top pick on the numbers.
Rock-solid roughie play. Rates right up to these on the CSW and settles handy off a good map. His last run reads far better than the bare result - he was held up and stuck for room when finishing off. Schofield's a strong booking and he's clear value at the quote. Second pick.
Best acceleration in the field by a street and McDonald jumps aboard. Trouble is he gets a long way back off this map, so he needs the race to fall his way from the rear. First-up and back a stack in trip from a marathon, and there's a touch of value about him. Third pick.
Honest type who keeps flying the line - just missed by a nose last start and holds terrific form. Berry gets the leg-up and there's early money about. Settles back and does his best work late, only he's short enough at the quote. Fourth pick.
Selections like these go up for every AU meeting, every race day.
Get today — $50The metrics
Soul Of Spain leads on two counts. His CAM, the composite ability rating, ranks first, as does his CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, and his acceleration, the measure of late turn of foot, also ranks first. That is a formidable profile undercut only by the map.
Punch Lane ranks second on CAM and, as noted, tops cruising speed. Nellie Leylax ranks second on CSW and third on cruising, backing up the read that he rates up to the front-runners. Juja Kibo ranks third on both CAM and acceleration, and second on acceleration behind Soul Of Spain sits Valiant King. It's A Knockout, whom the market likes at a $6 market this morning against a rated $9, sits fourth on CAM and second on cruising, but ranks last on CSW and is a runner Kingsley is happy to take on.
Market and what to watch
The clearest disagreement is at the roughie end, where Nellie Leylax is rated $10 into a $12 market this morning, and at the top, where both Punch Lane and Narbold sit rated slightly over their $4.00 quotes.
Watch the early cross: if Punch Lane crosses cleanly and controls the average tempo, the closers may not get their fairytale.
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This race is free today. A day pass opens every AU meeting — Kingsley's selections, ratings and live prices, until midnight Sydney.