Geelong Race 6 Preview: Tips, Rated Prices, Pace Read

A very fast tempo over 2435m is the whole story of this race, and it points the finger firmly at the runners coming from behind. Here is how Geelong Race 6 sets up.

The race

Geelong Race 6 is a $35,000 event over 2435m, jumping at 3:30pm AEST on a showery day with the rail out four metres from 1800m to 500m and out seven metres the rest of the way. Eleven runners go around. The dominant feature is the pace: The King Zone reads the tempo band as Very Fast with a pressure rating of 95.11 per cent, a genuinely hot speed that changes how every runner should be assessed. In a race run at that tempo, the horses ridden for luck at the back become the ones best placed at the line, and the on-pacers face a stiffer task than their form alone suggests.

The pace picture

Thunderbolt Way (5) has the lowest ppir in the field at 1, so he maps to lead, with Winston (3) next closest on a ppir of 3 and likely to sit just off him. Both won or ran well here recently doing exactly that, but the ratings flag the danger: with the tempo predicted to be this fierce, the leaders look up against it. Kingsley is happy to take on Thunderbolt Way for that reason, and notes Winston mapped forward again but that he would rather be on something coming from behind.

The swoopers land deep. Power Pivot (12) has the highest ppir at 14, Genrichero (4) at 13 and Amawasha (10) at 12, meaning they settle at or near the tail. In a slowly run race that is a problem. In this one, it is the setup they want, provided the leaders cop it up front.

Kingsley's selections

His top pick is Power Pivot (12), rated $6.50 against a $4.80 market this morning. He hammered home late last start after missing the kick, beaten a nose with the ride queried, and he gets right back again here. This hot tempo over 2435m is exactly the race the swoopers thrive in; the only question is how far back he settles.

His second pick Batoka Chief (7) is where the value sits: rated $4.80 against a $5.50 market this morning, so Kingsley has him shorter than the market does. He was beaten a whisker in a three-way go at Sandown last time and drops into an easier race. The wide gate from barrier 11 leaves him without cover, but the price reads as over the odds.

His third pick Amawasha (10) is rated $14 against a $13 market this morning. He owns the best acceleration in the field and hit the line hard last start when caught wide; if the leaders fold, he swoops. The worry is simply how far back he lands.

His fourth pick Genrichero (4) drops in grade with the class numbers stacking up, settles midfield with cover and has the burst to run on late. He is rated $6.50 against a $6 market this morning.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating, and Amawasha tops the field on it (camRank 1), with Iffycould (13) second and Genrichero third. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, has Thunderbolt Way ranked best (cswRank 1), then Genrichero and Batoka Chief. Cruising speed, a measure of a horse's natural travelling gear, is led by Winston (cruisingRank 1) ahead of Thunderbolt Way. Acceleration, the finishing-burst measure, is where the swoopers earn their keep: Amawasha ranks best in the field (accelerationRank 1) with a figure of 94.76, Iffycould next, then Genrichero.

The read is clear. The horses that top the acceleration and CAM lists are the ones dropping out the back, exactly the profile the pace favours, while the leaders hold the cruising-speed edge that a hot tempo tends to blunt.

There are no Golden Bullet or Good Roughie tips in this race. Note that Tupac (9) is rated $21 against a $10 market this morning; Kingsley has it well under the odds and can't have it.

What to watch: whether the leaders truly cop it up front, because if they do, the deep-settling trio of Power Pivot, Amawasha and Genrichero are all sitting on the right end of this pace.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.