Caulfield Race 7 Preview: A Very Fast Tempo Sets It Up

A $300,000 sprint at Caulfield with a genuine speed duel looming and a top pick who wants to control it from the front. Here is how Race 7 maps.

The race

Race 7 at Caulfield jumps at 4:00pm AEST, worth $300,000 to an eleven-runner field on the True Entire Circuit rail with overcast skies overhead. It is a competitive, weight-for-age-flavoured contest where most of the field carries 59kg, and the shape is what defines it.

The standfirst reads simply: this is a race about who survives the tempo. With a Very Fast band and a pressure reading of 90.45 percent, the leaders will be doing the work, and the runners who can settle off it with something left are the ones to concentrate on.

The pace picture

The tempo band here is Very Fast and the pressure reads 90.45 percent, which is about as hot as a sprint gets. That kind of number rarely flatters the front.

Only one runner maps to lead: Kingsley's top pick Evaporate (2), whose ppir of 1 puts him closest to the front, drawn to control it on the fence. Feroce (6) is next forward on a ppir of 3, and Kingsley's fourth pick Private Eye (1) maps up on the speed on a ppir of 4. Behind them the closers wait: Cosmic Crusader (7) settles midfield with cover, and Attrition (3), Desert Lightning (4) and Wootton Verni (8) map to get back on ppir figures of 8, 11 and 12 respectively — too far back to threaten if the leaders somehow steal a breather, but perfectly placed if the speed is as hot as the grid suggests.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Evaporate (2), who maps to lead and gets to dictate from the fence. He won his trial at Flemington leading in, and the Shinn booking is a strong one. Kingsley rates him $4.80 against a $5.50 market this morning, so he has him shorter than the release quote. Evaporate is also the official tip in this race, marked Back.

His second pick and, in his read, the biggest threat is Cosmic Crusader (7). He salutes on the acceleration figure, sits midfield with cover, and the hot speed up front is exactly the setup he needs to let down late. He won at Caulfield last start, Pike takes over, and he is unbeaten in four wet-track runs. Kingsley rates him $2.60 against a $2.50 market this morning.

His third pick Coeur Volante (12) maps to the box seat and gets every favour from the draw. He loves this track with four wins from seven, drops in weight and picks up Jamie Melham. Kingsley rates him $15 against a $12 market this morning, so he is a shade more cautious than the release price.

His fourth pick Private Eye (1) resumes as a nine-year-old with a strong fresh record — four first-up wins — and maps up on the speed with Rawiller sticking. Kingsley rates him $4.60 against a $3.70 market this morning, meaning the market has him considerably shorter than Kingsley does.

The metrics

CAM is the composite ability rating; on that measure Desert Lightning (4) leads the field with a CAM of 97.67 and camRank of 1, from Cosmic Crusader on camRank 2. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, is topped by Cosmic Crusader (7) at 103.33 and cswRank of 1, with Private Eye (1) next on cswRank 2 at 101.95.

Cruising speed, the tempo a runner can sustain, favours the top pick: Evaporate (2) rates best on cruisingRank 1 at 105.8, from Private Eye on cruisingRank 2. Acceleration, the finishing turn of foot, is headed by Wootton Verni (8) on accelerationRank 1, but he maps to get back on a ppir of 12; Cosmic Crusader sits second on accelerationRank 2, which is the number that matters given where he settles.

So the story binds together: Evaporate has the cruising speed to lead and the ratings to hold, while Cosmic Crusader has the best CSW and second-best acceleration to pounce on a race that should fall apart up front.

What to watch: whether Evaporate can steal a soft lead in a 90-percent-pressure race, or whether the tempo hands it to Cosmic Crusader's late kick.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.