Bathurst Race 6 Preview: Litlfela Rates On Top

A slow-tempo 1400m over eight runners at Bathurst, where the map shapes the race and Kingsley's rated card disagrees with the market on the two shortest in the book.

The Race

Race 6 at Bathurst is a $30,000 event jumping at 4:10pm AEST on a fine day, with the rail out two metres from the 1200m to the 350m and true the rest of the way. It is a compact field of eight, and the story here is as much about the tempo as the talent, because so little natural speed on paper leaves the race open to whoever can control it from the front.

The Pace Picture

The tempo band reads Slow and the pressure gauge sits at just 22.81 per cent, a genuinely soft speed reading. In that shape the runner drawn to sit closest to the lead has a clear structural edge. That is Step Quick (3), whose ppir of 1 means it settles nearest the front and gets every chance to dictate. Just behind, Encampment (1) maps at ppir 2 and Magic Iris (9) at ppir 3, with Bindaree Lass (6) at ppir 4 poised to roll forward into the space up front.

The map hurts the closers. Avignon (5) is projected to settle furthest back of all at ppir 8, and with so little tempo on paper it needs a stronger gallop than this looks likely to produce. Arwa Miss (4) at ppir 7 is in the same bind. Litlfela (2) settles midfield at ppir 5, on the speed enough to be handy without leading.

Kingsley's Selections

His top pick is Litlfela (2), the best-rated runner in the field and racing in good form, back to 1400m in what he reads as its wheelhouse. He rates it $6 against a $4.50 market this morning, so he has it as the one to beat but rates it short at the quote. His second pick and, in his words, the biggest threat is Bindaree Lass (6), which he expects to roll forward and control a soft speed out in front, with Jacob Stiff aboard and rated $6 against a $7.50 market this morning — a touch of value on his numbers.

His third pick is Step Quick (3), the one that maps closest to the lead and gets every chance, though still a maiden after more than twenty starts; he rates it $7 against a $6.50 market this morning. His fourth pick is Arwa Miss (4), forgiven for weakening after being caught wide last time, with early support suggesting the stable expects better; he rates it $23 against a $17 market this morning.

The runner he is happy to take on is the favourite, Samoan Roman (12). It ran on okay at its only start and gets winkers with natural improvement to come, but Kingsley rates it $3.40 against a $2.50 market this morning and sees it as far too short off a single run. There are no official tips in this race.

The Metrics

CAM, the composite ability rating, has Litlfela clear on top at camRank 1, ahead of Step Quick at camRank 2 and Arwa Miss at camRank 3. CSW, the class-speed-weight time rating, tells a different tale: Bindaree Lass ranks best at cswRank 1, with Litlfela cswRank 2 and Step Quick cswRank 3.

Cruising speed, a measure of a horse's sustainable travel, again favours Bindaree Lass at cruisingRank 1, backing up the leader's soft-lead scenario, with Step Quick cruisingRank 2. Acceleration, the turn-of-foot rating, is headed by Litlfela at accelerationRank 1, then Avignon at accelerationRank 2 and Arwa Miss accelerationRank 3 — the sting Litlfela can bring if the sprint home is genuine.

The tension in the numbers is plain: Bindaree Lass owns the class-time and cruising ratings but sits last for both CAM and acceleration, so it needs the soft lead to hold. Litlfela owns the ability and the finishing kick but must find it from midfield.

What to watch: whether Bindaree Lass gets the soft, uncontested lead its cruising rating wants — because if it does, Litlfela's turn of foot has to be the difference.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.