Canterbury Race 6 Preview: Miss Trentino Over The Odds

Canterbury Race 6 is a $60,000 assignment over the jumping at 4:20pm AEST, nine going around on a fine day with the rail out two metres, entire.

The race

This is a compact, competitive nine-horse field and the shape of it matters more than usual. James McDonald picks up the ride on Inoue, Tommy Berry sits behind the fence on Miss Trentino, and there is a genuine class edge scattered through the top of the market. The weather is fine and the rail sits at +2m entire, so no excuses on the ground. It sets up as a race decided by who gets the run of it and who can absorb the tempo.

Pace picture

The tempo band reads Very Fast with a pressure reading of 97.98 per cent, which is about as hot as these get. That is the single most important fact in the race. Shalaa Gold (7) maps to lead on a ppir of 3, with his cruising speed the second best in the field, but a very fast tempo does the frontrunner no favours.

Of those who settle closest, his second pick Zale (3) carries a ppir of 1 — the runner mapped nearest the speed — and will need to be tough with no cover. His top pick Miss Trentino (5) sits on a ppir of 2 from barrier one, the box seat, ideally placed to let the tearaway pace bring the sprinters back to her. Bremel (2) settles a touch further back on a ppir of 5, while Donwon (9) is buried on a ppir of 11 and simply maps too far off it.

Kingsley's selections

Kingsley's top pick is Miss Trentino (5), and the case is straightforward. She trialled sharply into this off a win, maps to land in the box seat from barrier one with Berry aboard, and gets the tongue tie for the first time. She is rated $2.80 against a $3.50 market this morning, so his number has her over the odds. She is also the official Golden Bullet tip to Back.

His second pick is Zale (3), the biggest threat. The last start reads worse than it was — a poor tactical ride and no peace in front — and he still fought on. Rated $9.50 against a $7.50 market this morning, he is the class runner drawn to do the work.

His third pick is Bremel (2), resuming off a trial Kingsley liked, with a clear class edge and a handy map, the wide barrier nine the only query. He is rated $14 against a $12 market this morning.

His fourth pick is Inoue (1), who missed the start by four lengths last time, got well back and still saluted at Canterbury. McDonald jumps on second-up; the weight rise is the only knock. He is rated $4.20 against a $3.10 market this morning, so Kingsley has him shorter than most but still below the release price.

Sir Franklin (4) is drawing early money at a $6.50 market this morning but is rated $9 — resuming without a recent trial and mapping to get well back, he is one Kingsley is prepared to take on. Shalaa Gold (7) is rated $16 against an $8 market this morning, a frontrunner Kingsley thinks the market has badly wrong.

The metrics

CSW is the class-speed-weight time rating, and Zale tops it at rank 1 with a mark of 89.93, with Inoue rank 2 on 88.23 and Bremel rank 3 on 87.66 — a tight top three. CAM, the composite ability figure, also has Zale at rank 1 on 81.68, from Sir Franklin at rank 2 and Bremel at rank 3.

Cruising speed, how fast a runner travels mid-race, favours Miss Trentino at rank 1 on 84.9, with Shalaa Gold rank 2 on 84.1 and Zale rank 3. Acceleration, the finishing burst, is headed by Donwon at rank 1 on 85.85, then Abuse Of Power at rank 2 and Bremel at rank 3 — though Donwon's map undercuts that turn of foot.

The read: Zale owns the class-and-ability numbers, Miss Trentino owns the tempo and the trip, and Bremel is the one runner sitting inside the top three on CAM, CSW and acceleration all at once.

What to watch: whether the very fast tempo folds the leaders back into Miss Trentino's box seat, or whether Zale's class carries him through despite doing the donkey work in front.

Pre-race analysis, published before the jump. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.